{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b66e8a7-de87-4da9-a961-90c51a7f5267", "symbol": "IBII", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS OCT 2032 TERM TIPS ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.953, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.181, "architecture_energy": 48.501, "architecture_maturity": 30.755, "architecture_confidence": 90.144, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.47, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 8.6, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 46.88, "downward_expansion": 79.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.278667, 25.30122, 25.38972, 25.509918 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.305, "trend_reference": 25.646373, "distance_from_trend": -0.013311, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.380511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037919, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.285439, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021712, "excess_performance": -0.147336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013311, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005151, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037919, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021712, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.409105, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117092, "relative_activity": 1.844147, "balance": 1.409105, "dry_up": 1.089637, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006887, "annualized_volatility": 0.048548, "from_high_reference": -0.034357, "from_low_reference": 0.006471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.646373, "fair_value_reference": 24.380511, "structural_low": 25.1423, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001293, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008992, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002147, "worst_return": -0.004734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"typical_volume": 63493.85, "trend": 25.646373, "fair_value": 24.380511, "relative_strength": -12.285439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.180827, "energy": 48.50139, "activity_lines": [ 25.278667, 25.30122, 25.38972, 25.509918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }