{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b6cc770-5a39-44b2-b80f-563081bbe4ba", "symbol": "HSJD", "name": "HSBC Japan Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.773, "architecture_energy": 59.226, "architecture_maturity": 53.558, "architecture_confidence": 74.505, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 56.52, "upward_expansion": 82.43, "deceleration": 66.31, "rotation_down": 26.12, "downward_expansion": 9.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.504, 22.363182, 21.913457, 21.507312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.084999, "trend_reference": 21.083267, "distance_from_trend": 0.094944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.294154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.993536, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109856, "excess_performance": -0.061036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021067, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109856, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.288967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41182, "relative_activity": 0.466575, "balance": 3.288967, "dry_up": 0.906197, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025874, "annualized_volatility": 0.202055, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.306895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.083267, "fair_value_reference": 17.294154, "structural_low": 19.082001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.01056, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.012145, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.075311, "worst_return": -0.096475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015148, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.003413, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.127075, "worst_return": -0.025303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.089601, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.029225, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.207236, "worst_return": 0.018264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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22.327334, 22.05791, 21.4119, 21.11302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.790001, "volume": 185761, "typical_volume": 102763.1, "trend": 20.7823, "fair_value": 17.125032, "relative_strength": -3.170048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.320517, "energy": 59.552317, "activity_lines": [ 22.194334, 22.059819, 21.492277, 21.183744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.41, "volume": 70401, "typical_volume": 105170.8, "trend": 20.8893, "fair_value": 17.178827, "relative_strength": -0.330823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.203552, "energy": 61.722146, "activity_lines": [ 22.257667, 22.154091, 21.630105, 21.288757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.18, "volume": 22596, "typical_volume": 95832.65, "trend": 20.9881, "fair_value": 17.233583, "relative_strength": -2.046829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.99716, "energy": 49.258066, "activity_lines": [ 22.235667, 22.183091, 21.734419, 21.372028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.084999, "volume": 41182, "typical_volume": 88264.45, "trend": 21.083267, "fair_value": 17.294154, "relative_strength": -0.993536, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.77298, "energy": 59.225551, "activity_lines": [ 22.504, 22.363182, 21.913457, 21.507312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }