{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b7026d6-56f1-4fdf-8f77-1fadd61ea805", "symbol": "HCL", "name": "Hecla Mining Company", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.761, "architecture_energy": 40.559, "architecture_maturity": 52.285, "architecture_confidence": 83.119, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.05, "rotation_up": 23.44, "upward_expansion": 5.18, "deceleration": 58.46, "rotation_down": 47.88, "downward_expansion": 76.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.352667, 13.453818, 13.980596, 14.772389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.38, "trend_reference": 16.304742, "distance_from_trend": -0.118048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.998343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.797872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.738033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246572, "excess_performance": -0.311212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.797872, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246572, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.737679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170241, "relative_activity": 1.923058, "balance": 0.737679, "dry_up": 1.137194, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104011, "annualized_volatility": 0.527898, "from_high_reference": -0.500981, "from_low_reference": 1.284199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.304742, "fair_value_reference": 7.998343, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.020577, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.028512, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.349183, "worst_return": -0.215909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.236889, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.194342, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.573087, "worst_return": -0.18062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.42213, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.37508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.600136, "worst_return": -0.006632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.874333, 13.947786, 14.677218, 15.667169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.575, "volume": 109371, "typical_volume": 105713.65, "trend": 16.692604, "fair_value": 7.83014, "relative_strength": -12.000588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.073341, "energy": 50.552514, "activity_lines": [ 13.49, 13.645747, 14.400806, 15.391502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.475, "volume": 63635, "typical_volume": 95726.6, "trend": 16.571703, "fair_value": 7.88453, "relative_strength": -7.706637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.87677, "energy": 42.465614, "activity_lines": [ 13.443667, 13.563364, 14.248848, 15.183915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.28, "volume": 59439, "typical_volume": 87032.6, "trend": 16.466943, "fair_value": 7.93303, "relative_strength": -18.353452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.286197, "energy": 53.073496, "activity_lines": [ 12.997333, 13.297091, 14.003161, 14.907031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.38, "volume": 170241, "typical_volume": 88526.2, "trend": 16.304742, "fair_value": 7.998343, "relative_strength": -7.738033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.760631, "energy": 40.558848, "activity_lines": [ 13.352667, 13.453818, 13.980596, 14.772389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }