{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b74776c-9b15-4b8e-8881-fa662dc12e20", "symbol": "688161", "name": "Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic Device Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.814, "architecture_energy": 54.603, "architecture_maturity": 69.496, "architecture_confidence": 87.014, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.05, "rotation_up": 28.5, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 59.3, "rotation_down": 41.75, "downward_expansion": 76.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.533334, 21.568701, 23.334187, 24.965035 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.16, "trend_reference": 26.884106, "distance_from_trend": -0.175721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.615269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225588, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.62374, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.256875, "excess_performance": -0.213671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225588, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.357087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4953785, "relative_activity": 0.640813, "balance": 0.357087, "dry_up": 0.753434, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081964, "annualized_volatility": 0.419246, "from_high_reference": -0.403888, "from_low_reference": 0.115249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.884106, "fair_value_reference": 28.615269, "structural_low": 19.870001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.032947, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.011618, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.275428, "worst_return": -0.226642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.190058, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.126036, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.526203, "worst_return": -0.313404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.154141, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087526, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.317109, "worst_return": -0.443897, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 8725189.75, "trend": 27.301773, "fair_value": 28.869209, "relative_strength": -27.356163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.157115, "energy": 64.413608, "activity_lines": [ 21.25, 21.760469, 24.104408, 25.65393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.540001, "volume": 4250268, "typical_volume": 8030216.15, "trend": 27.076106, "fair_value": 28.750803, "relative_strength": -22.228359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.129981, "energy": 59.063969, "activity_lines": [ 21.334, 21.567928, 23.666202, 25.282203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.16, "volume": 4953785, "typical_volume": 7730466.1, "trend": 26.884106, "fair_value": 28.615269, "relative_strength": -21.62374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.813767, "energy": 54.60278, "activity_lines": [ 21.533334, 21.568701, 23.334187, 24.965035 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }