{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b757a2f-9769-40ae-aae7-4b125218f93f", "symbol": "URNJ", "name": "Sprott Junior Uranium Miners UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.809, "architecture_energy": 61.452, "architecture_maturity": 27.995, "architecture_confidence": 95.743, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.33, "rotation_up": 20.35, "upward_expansion": 11.45, "deceleration": 45.55, "rotation_down": 63.67, "downward_expansion": 87.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.968567, 8.131527, 8.796102, 9.313511 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.486, "trend_reference": 10.03125, "distance_from_trend": -0.154044, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.89771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.712896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195335, "excess_performance": -0.24657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154044, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334104, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184688, "relative_activity": 1.665705, "balance": 0.334104, "dry_up": 1.020597, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094033, "annualized_volatility": 0.470337, "from_high_reference": -0.409217, "from_low_reference": 0.346557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.03125, "fair_value_reference": 7.89771, "structural_low": 7.359, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.055793, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.07751, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.055793, "worst_return": -0.055793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.40239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023705, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-01", "close": 7.918, "volume": 67601, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-08", "close": 7.8505, "volume": 61054, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-15", "close": 7.588, "volume": 22060, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"energy": 77.65838, "activity_lines": [ 8.5992, 9.005773, 9.665898, 10.03889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.3975, "volume": 72827, "typical_volume": 153741.65, "trend": 10.258483, "fair_value": 7.899685, "relative_strength": -15.812623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.546792, "energy": 72.885848, "activity_lines": [ 8.499, 8.819536, 9.498583, 9.918376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.456, "volume": 127392, "typical_volume": 148286.1, "trend": 10.205317, "fair_value": 7.896135, "relative_strength": -25.81043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.063445, "energy": 87.225109, "activity_lines": [ 8.1248, 8.505145, 9.259119, 9.737571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.827, "volume": 59936, "typical_volume": 132731.75, "trend": 10.161067, "fair_value": 7.895587, "relative_strength": -22.976335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.944183, "energy": 79.369426, "activity_lines": [ 7.956733, 8.319845, 9.077131, 9.584131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.577, "volume": 80626, "typical_volume": 115166.7, "trend": 10.09655, "fair_value": 7.893078, "relative_strength": -26.32337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.832126, "energy": 79.6738, "activity_lines": [ 7.7874, 8.125918, 8.885933, 9.417417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.486, "volume": 184688, "typical_volume": 110876.8, "trend": 10.03125, "fair_value": 7.89771, "relative_strength": -17.712896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.808717, "energy": 61.452127, "activity_lines": [ 7.968567, 8.131527, 8.796102, 9.313511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }