{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b7661c9-2c00-4a62-80c3-51a70b067cf2", "symbol": "RWO", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR DOW JONES GLOBAL REAL ESTATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.977, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.021, "architecture_energy": 62.772, "architecture_maturity": 33.569, "architecture_confidence": 71.262, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 65.06, "upward_expansion": 85.88, "deceleration": 48.82, "rotation_down": 15.17, "downward_expansion": 12.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.184267, 50.794506, 49.999975, 49.371507 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.79, "trend_reference": 48.620833, "distance_from_trend": 0.044614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.566542, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.584722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070306, "excess_performance": -0.055319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037751, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070306, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.505828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3071603, "relative_activity": 7.392718, "balance": 0.505828, "dry_up": 2.276872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027356, "annualized_volatility": 0.162236, "from_high_reference": -0.028129, "from_low_reference": 0.189359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.620833, "fair_value_reference": 42.566542, "structural_low": 44.73, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.00898, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.004018, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.054826, "worst_return": -0.058687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014567, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039739, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.07911, "worst_return": -0.023462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0228, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.069501, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.089219, "worst_return": -0.184347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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49.117376, 48.595746, 48.170683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.48, "volume": 814460, "typical_volume": 260365.85, "trend": 47.599832, "fair_value": 42.151459, "relative_strength": -0.644957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.828586, "energy": 60.003894, "activity_lines": [ 49.846524, 49.396128, 48.802736, 48.36842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.2204, "volume": 264283, "typical_volume": 265445.1, "trend": 47.785436, "fair_value": 42.225758, "relative_strength": -2.406395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.014788, "energy": 58.032824, "activity_lines": [ 50.074717, 49.593064, 48.977644, 48.537489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.4668, "volume": 150941, "typical_volume": 267201.05, "trend": 48.016848, "fair_value": 42.306653, "relative_strength": 1.58084, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.082724, "energy": 75.336899, "activity_lines": [ 50.600829, 49.990868, 49.265939, 48.774996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.02, "volume": 304667, "typical_volume": 272682.7, "trend": 48.246259, "fair_value": 42.394113, "relative_strength": 3.23875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.317825, "energy": 80.256007, "activity_lines": [ 51.201227, 50.448048, 49.597371, 49.033264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.15, "volume": 256862, "typical_volume": 276093.25, "trend": 48.450977, "fair_value": 42.48151, "relative_strength": 0.428629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.118338, "energy": 70.649784, "activity_lines": [ 51.276747, 50.673078, 49.826048, 49.220602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.79, "volume": 3071603, "typical_volume": 415490.35, "trend": 48.620833, "fair_value": 42.566542, "relative_strength": -3.584722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.020914, "energy": 62.77169, "activity_lines": [ 51.184267, 50.794506, 49.999975, 49.371507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }