{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b7704da-1f69-43e5-abba-8acbea46d361", "symbol": "300464", "name": "Guangdong SACA Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.961, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.168, "architecture_energy": 56.211, "architecture_maturity": 18.875, "architecture_confidence": 64.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.97, "rotation_up": 17.65, "upward_expansion": 19.79, "deceleration": 45.1, "rotation_down": 66.27, "downward_expansion": 59.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.094667, 6.509818, 7.267381, 7.403333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.39, "trend_reference": 7.395333, "distance_from_trend": -0.135942, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.703333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.248224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049107, "excess_performance": -0.056507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.414106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33498050, "relative_activity": 0.464176, "balance": 2.414106, "dry_up": 0.922109, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169857, "annualized_volatility": 0.494061, "from_high_reference": -0.420671, "from_low_reference": 0.342437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.395333, "fair_value_reference": 5.703333, "structural_low": 4.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088583, 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"2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.165049, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079392, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 6.43, "volume": 133464465, "typical_volume": 53560141.1, "trend": 6.379667, "fair_value": 10.518326, "relative_strength": 5.931582, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.474841, "energy": 36.192635, "activity_lines": [ 6.698667, 6.625636, 6.492476, 6.451312 ] }, { "date": 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8.137333, 8.362182, 8.183762, 7.881699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.0, "volume": 10139100, "typical_volume": 74632251.85, "trend": 7.507, "fair_value": 5.724423, "relative_strength": -12.985584, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.45613, "energy": 17.904649, "activity_lines": [ 7.661333, 8.114727, 8.097524, 7.848022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.27, "volume": 46528200, "typical_volume": 73864569.45, "trend": 7.484, "fair_value": 5.722949, "relative_strength": -18.924469, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.557614, "energy": 37.888882, "activity_lines": [ 7.118, 7.752364, 7.940714, 7.768215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.92, "volume": 73832600, "typical_volume": 75128836.7, "trend": 7.443, "fair_value": 5.718141, "relative_strength": -15.69638, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.544318, "energy": 61.470453, "activity_lines": [ 6.633333, 7.356182, 7.752952, 7.667312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.68, "volume": 91478812, "typical_volume": 76480754.8, "trend": 7.405, "fair_value": 5.711667, "relative_strength": -19.259606, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.692298, "energy": 69.106191, "activity_lines": [ 6.173333, 6.956909, 7.548667, 7.55357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.08, "volume": 67373000, "typical_volume": 76559349.8, "trend": 7.393667, "fair_value": 5.707051, "relative_strength": -12.188781, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.906, "energy": 65.650321, "activity_lines": [ 6.028, 6.676909, 7.389714, 7.468086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.39, "volume": 33498050, "typical_volume": 72166743.65, "trend": 7.395333, "fair_value": 5.703333, "relative_strength": -12.248224, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.167636, "energy": 56.210999, "activity_lines": [ 6.094667, 6.509818, 7.267381, 7.403333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }