{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b7b3e4d-8316-4545-bb70-416439e26957", "symbol": "MPCT-UN", "name": "Dream Impact Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.65, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.668, "architecture_energy": 14.295, "architecture_maturity": 48.92, "architecture_confidence": 77.326, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.16, "rotation_up": 29.06, "upward_expansion": 21.27, "deceleration": 35.54, "rotation_down": 32.34, "downward_expansion": 57.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.642667, 1.628, 1.64581, 1.659054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.66, "trend_reference": 1.700667, "distance_from_trend": -0.023912, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.43015, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.516056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.37976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126316, "excess_performance": -0.246737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.516056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050277, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.677849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12100, "relative_activity": 0.257392, "balance": 0.677849, "dry_up": 0.550415, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063485, "annualized_volatility": 0.39202, "from_high_reference": -0.245455, "from_low_reference": 0.371901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.700667, "fair_value_reference": 3.43015, "structural_low": 1.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.013555, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026257, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122581, "worst_return": -0.377524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.138283, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.117069, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.045161, "worst_return": -0.389523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.312984, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.292476, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.005212, "worst_return": -0.452684, "sufficient": 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31.249205, "activity_lines": [ 1.62, 1.658364, 1.671048, 1.685806 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.62, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 59300.0, "trend": 1.669, "fair_value": 3.714474, "relative_strength": -16.954435, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.305283, "energy": 34.300346, "activity_lines": [ 1.611333, 1.645091, 1.664571, 1.683075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.6, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 54590.0, "trend": 1.677667, "fair_value": 3.669339, "relative_strength": -17.141877, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.372613, "energy": 38.033807, "activity_lines": [ 1.606667, 1.632909, 1.657524, 1.678624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.62, "volume": 26600, "typical_volume": 55185.0, "trend": 1.688, "fair_value": 3.62409, "relative_strength": -14.850299, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.000618, "energy": 39.526949, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.626909, 1.653143, 1.674903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 37500, "typical_volume": 54185.0, "trend": 1.693, "fair_value": 3.573185, "relative_strength": -14.483594, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.964219, "energy": 32.809837, "activity_lines": [ 1.607333, 1.617273, 1.647381, 1.669226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.6, "volume": 24200, "typical_volume": 51575.0, "trend": 1.699333, "fair_value": 3.525065, "relative_strength": -13.545545, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.432663, "energy": 29.012281, "activity_lines": [ 1.605333, 1.610545, 1.64219, 1.663226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 29700, "typical_volume": 48430.0, "trend": 1.705333, "fair_value": 3.478435, "relative_strength": -7.723004, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.915345, "energy": 15.460022, "activity_lines": [ 1.629333, 1.620182, 1.645238, 1.661978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.66, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 47010.0, "trend": 1.700667, "fair_value": 3.43015, "relative_strength": -11.37976, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.667533, "energy": 14.294882, "activity_lines": [ 1.642667, 1.628, 1.64581, 1.659054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }