{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8b7e10b2-8973-49e0-8a3e-1067caf43d69",
    "symbol": "PCY",
    "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II EMERGING MKTS SOVEREIGN DEBT ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 92.248,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -13.72,
    "architecture_energy": 20.523,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.258,
    "architecture_confidence": 53.851,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.87,
        "rotation_up": 15.34,
        "upward_expansion": 14.36,
        "deceleration": 64.03,
        "rotation_down": 55.38,
        "downward_expansion": 39.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        21.122928,
        21.261209,
        21.306713,
        21.267783
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 21.27,
    "trend_reference": 21.243489,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.001248,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 18.989138,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120114,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.097308,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.000521,
    "excess_performance": -0.126146,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001248,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003557,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.120114,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.037038,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.100973,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030752,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000521,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.660883,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1403252,
      "relative_activity": 0.893745,
      "balance": 0.660883,
      "dry_up": 0.716237,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019979,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.089739,
      "from_high_reference": -0.027958,
      "from_low_reference": 0.073826
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 21.243489,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.989138,
      "structural_low": 20.258293,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.002136,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013581,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.028621,
        "worst_return": -0.08567,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.027789,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006169,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.073179,
        "worst_return": -0.01907,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.059231,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008636,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.062707,
        "worst_return": 0.055754,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.122533,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.027723,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.143947,
        "worst_return": 0.101119,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009448,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.019878,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.014965,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016162,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.100203,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "return": 0.002773,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": false
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    ],
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1106688,
        "typical_volume": 1758334.3,
        "trend": 21.256171,
        "fair_value": 18.898123,
        "relative_strength": -7.192418,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.98622,
        "energy": 15.148306,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.418446,
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          21.354962,
          21.30539
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 20.97,
        "volume": 931894,
        "typical_volume": 1684572.35,
        "trend": 21.247431,
        "fair_value": 18.926664,
        "relative_strength": -7.702047,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.058545,
        "energy": 12.269877,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.248143,
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          21.330512,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 20.92,
        "volume": 1056367,
        "typical_volume": 1613935.2,
        "trend": 21.239302,
        "fair_value": 18.956486,
        "relative_strength": -8.69705,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.805409,
        "energy": 24.236991,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.105757,
          21.280041,
          21.302277,
          21.265802
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.27,
        "volume": 1403252,
        "typical_volume": 1570080.6,
        "trend": 21.243489,
        "fair_value": 18.989138,
        "relative_strength": -10.097308,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.719655,
        "energy": 20.522737,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.122928,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}