{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b829583-a665-42bb-b00a-739918dcd85b", "symbol": "600151", "name": "Shanghai Aerospace Automobile Electromechanical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.554, "architecture_energy": 60.226, "architecture_maturity": 30.77, "architecture_confidence": 79.935, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 10.38, "deceleration": 45.43, "rotation_down": 67.78, "downward_expansion": 83.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.040667, 10.457091, 11.716095, 12.438258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.12, "trend_reference": 13.638, "distance_from_trend": -0.184631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.401731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.28124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263088, "excess_performance": -0.219884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.565713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191033814, "relative_activity": 0.828444, "balance": 0.789992, "dry_up": 0.828078, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146375, "annualized_volatility": 0.610575, "from_high_reference": -0.512281, "from_low_reference": 0.559607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.638, "fair_value_reference": 8.401731, "structural_low": 8.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.015769, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.006753, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.314948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.046602, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.015388, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.692022, "worst_return": -0.301611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.088727, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018337, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.880086, "worst_return": -0.293495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147854, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.16245, 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"trend": 14.069667, "fair_value": 8.373013, "relative_strength": -24.232373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.004822, "energy": 86.825271, "activity_lines": [ 9.715333, 10.755636, 12.120667, 12.87 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.11, "volume": 190457417, "typical_volume": 228733231.95, "trend": 13.852333, "fair_value": 8.383654, "relative_strength": -12.890225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.280028, "energy": 77.044955, "activity_lines": [ 9.665333, 10.468364, 11.861524, 12.614538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.12, "volume": 191033814, "typical_volume": 230593475.25, "trend": 13.638, "fair_value": 8.401731, "relative_strength": -7.28124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.553508, "energy": 60.225576, "activity_lines": [ 10.040667, 10.457091, 11.716095, 12.438258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }