{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b8ab818-4b49-4c1a-bf17-520c24170287", "symbol": "603323", "name": "Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.519, "architecture_energy": 21.757, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.187, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.93, "rotation_up": 38.31, "upward_expansion": 23.69, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 23.68, "downward_expansion": 51.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.250667, 4.185624, 4.199552, 4.24072 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.21, "trend_reference": 4.300476, "distance_from_trend": -0.021039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.960257, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063062, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.152144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051404, "excess_performance": -0.0082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063062, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704736, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177269977, "relative_activity": 1.372102, "balance": 0.704736, "dry_up": 1.49253, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045441, "annualized_volatility": 0.18201, "from_high_reference": -0.128178, "from_low_reference": 0.071247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.300476, "fair_value_reference": 3.960257, "structural_low": 3.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.021951, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.002295, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.065645, "worst_return": -0.065508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054245, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.02645, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.096197, "worst_return": -0.038675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042026, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.209768, "worst_return": -0.044489, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.239333, 4.177382, 4.202153, 4.247105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.21, "volume": 177269977, "typical_volume": 129195918.2, "trend": 4.300476, "fair_value": 3.960257, "relative_strength": -4.152144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.518893, "energy": 21.757204, "activity_lines": [ 4.250667, 4.185624, 4.199552, 4.24072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }