{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b8c9805-5602-4cf7-8895-a36570657ac0", "symbol": "CAPG", "name": "Capgemini SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.844, "architecture_energy": 17.458, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.914, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.63, "rotation_up": 42.95, "upward_expansion": 27.18, "deceleration": 41.14, "rotation_down": 20.22, "downward_expansion": 54.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.400667, 96.462546, 96.62044, 98.377384 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 109.25, "trend_reference": 103.403304, "distance_from_trend": 0.056543, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 151.437534, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27858, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.891078, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053293, "excess_performance": -0.22754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12484, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27858, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096962, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.472271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.472271, "dry_up": 4.828395, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065265, "annualized_volatility": 0.431299, "from_high_reference": -0.28125, "from_low_reference": 0.27242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.403304, "fair_value_reference": 151.437534, "structural_low": 85.860001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.017427, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.000256, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.145334, "worst_return": -0.106859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006354, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027164, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.084943, "worst_return": -0.119015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03677, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112595, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117881, "worst_return": -0.172215, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.839996, "volume": 4617, "typical_volume": 246.95, "trend": 107.871971, "fair_value": 152.504321, "relative_strength": -35.969994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.855853, "energy": 57.753266, "activity_lines": [ 90.301332, 92.563631, 95.44857, 99.342131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.540001, "volume": 1407, "typical_volume": 317.3, "trend": 106.103304, "fair_value": 152.078196, "relative_strength": -36.944654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.306328, "energy": 50.488751, "activity_lines": [ 90.108, 91.684678, 94.648526, 98.159423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.050003, "volume": 3036, "typical_volume": 469.1, "trend": 104.818304, "fair_value": 151.744712, "relative_strength": -25.265808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.476456, "energy": 15.805208, "activity_lines": [ 95.078001, 93.738011, 95.423531, 98.091468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 469.1, "trend": 103.403304, "fair_value": 151.437534, "relative_strength": -23.891078, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.844167, "energy": 17.457898, "activity_lines": [ 100.400667, 96.462546, 96.62044, 98.377384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }