{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b8cc642-9ee2-4e96-b397-39546c14a441", "symbol": "MREO", "name": "Mereo BioPharma Group PLC ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.175, "architecture_energy": 18.771, "architecture_maturity": 33.31, "architecture_confidence": 58.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.58, "rotation_up": 22.95, "upward_expansion": 13.76, "deceleration": 61.78, "rotation_down": 37.43, "downward_expansion": 59.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.311393, 0.313485, 0.307077, 0.316841 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.2963, "trend_reference": 0.347633, "distance_from_trend": -0.147665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.294287, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.870853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -73.798633, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.302002, "excess_performance": -0.489456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.567136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.870853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.737986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12088, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.956655, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3521853, "relative_activity": 0.281616, "balance": 1.956655, "dry_up": 0.361437, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19458, "annualized_volatility": 0.722946, "from_high_reference": -0.874979, "from_low_reference": 0.4815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.347633, "fair_value_reference": 2.294287, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.1005, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.085614, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.853162, "worst_return": -0.68, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038168, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.228665, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.286822, "worst_return": -0.73645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.20952, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.108527, "worst_return": -0.859447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034674, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.265416, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039855, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.3101, "volume": 3570867, "typical_volume": 12913698.25, "trend": 0.427233, "fair_value": 2.312449, "relative_strength": -73.884923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.432422, "energy": 16.786665, "activity_lines": [ 0.319813, 0.315165, 0.307651, 0.33068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2878, "volume": 2963434, "typical_volume": 12606082.3, "trend": 0.359827, "fair_value": 2.306217, "relative_strength": -74.597858, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.261457, "energy": 21.561814, "activity_lines": [ 0.310027, 0.311715, 0.305041, 0.321684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3427, "volume": 8024218, "typical_volume": 12736493.15, "trend": 0.354237, "fair_value": 2.300337, "relative_strength": -69.01427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.946508, "energy": 7.566038, "activity_lines": [ 0.31998, 0.317404, 0.308165, 0.320579 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2963, "volume": 3521853, "typical_volume": 12505885.4, "trend": 0.347633, "fair_value": 2.294287, "relative_strength": -73.798633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.175014, "energy": 18.771054, "activity_lines": [ 0.311393, 0.313485, 0.307077, 0.316841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }