{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b8e0af5-1cb0-433f-955a-727cb240a2b1", "symbol": "002908", "name": "Guangdong Tecsun Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.129, "architecture_energy": 48.166, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.71, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.37, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 19.89, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 47.31, "downward_expansion": 72.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.714, 6.670545, 7.124448, 7.665919 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.16, "trend_reference": 8.452562, "distance_from_trend": -0.15292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.63164, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.09171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.284715, "excess_performance": -0.292115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046019, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284715, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.56239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73064227, "relative_activity": 3.005377, "balance": 0.56239, "dry_up": 1.640343, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080737, "annualized_volatility": 0.308283, "from_high_reference": -0.461249, "from_low_reference": 0.17377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.452562, "fair_value_reference": 9.63164, "structural_low": 6.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.01512, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032966, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.304955, "worst_return": -0.178516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067456, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.036974, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.484627, "worst_return": -0.286511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053434, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.165422, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167924, "worst_return": -0.267839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082497, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", 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"down", "direction": -78.489738, "energy": 69.965399, "activity_lines": [ 6.388667, 6.623527, 7.283751, 7.879368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.75, "volume": 27775152, "typical_volume": 22054813.8, "trend": 8.564895, "fair_value": 9.672897, "relative_strength": -27.495228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.417546, "energy": 64.090732, "activity_lines": [ 6.494667, 6.598536, 7.177957, 7.756558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.16, "volume": 73064227, "typical_volume": 24311165.85, "trend": 8.452562, "fair_value": 9.63164, "relative_strength": -26.09171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.129179, "energy": 48.166342, "activity_lines": [ 6.714, 6.670545, 7.124448, 7.665919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }