{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b90882f-7838-4ace-8abb-7be7333f4d05", "symbol": "INFL10", "name": "UBS BBG Euro Inflation Linked 10+ UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.082, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.111, "architecture_energy": 30.207, "architecture_maturity": 2.156, "architecture_confidence": 63.536, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.6, "rotation_up": 17.18, "upward_expansion": 19.04, "deceleration": 56.3, "rotation_down": 63.0, "downward_expansion": 44.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.558533, 15.632036, 15.662105, 15.652941 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.604, "trend_reference": 15.634426, "distance_from_trend": -0.001946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.573638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00195, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.8014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007822, "excess_performance": -0.16307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001946, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008174, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007822, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.03484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2336, "relative_activity": 0.954619, "balance": 3.03484, "dry_up": 1.355816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010362, "annualized_volatility": 0.057222, "from_high_reference": -0.040934, "from_low_reference": 0.046348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.634426, "fair_value_reference": 15.573638, "structural_low": 15.372, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016306, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.027948, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.077363, "worst_return": -0.05072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003354, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04952, "worst_return": -0.046464, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036144, "worst_return": -0.034916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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54.195035, "activity_lines": [ 15.8096, 15.769491, 15.70481, 15.662708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.642, "volume": 914, "typical_volume": 3146.6, "trend": 15.584775, "fair_value": 15.583108, "relative_strength": -13.3968, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.554933, "energy": 30.427831, "activity_lines": [ 15.764133, 15.751927, 15.70141, 15.667273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.598, "volume": 2640, "typical_volume": 3137.2, "trend": 15.60196, "fair_value": 15.58006, "relative_strength": -12.036355, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.88738, "energy": 16.0707, "activity_lines": [ 15.708533, 15.726836, 15.694429, 15.668126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.496, "volume": 3420, "typical_volume": 3169.35, "trend": 15.616139, "fair_value": 15.576639, "relative_strength": -12.09341, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.693092, "energy": 13.38771, "activity_lines": [ 15.627467, 15.686182, 15.679171, 15.66129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.508, "volume": 4875, "typical_volume": 2522.3, "trend": 15.62526, "fair_value": 15.574849, "relative_strength": -12.211089, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.582948, "energy": 30.683408, "activity_lines": [ 15.563867, 15.649164, 15.665771, 15.654313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.604, "volume": 2336, "typical_volume": 2447.05, "trend": 15.634426, "fair_value": 15.573638, "relative_strength": -13.8014, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.111156, "energy": 30.207398, "activity_lines": [ 15.558533, 15.632036, 15.662105, 15.652941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }