{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b925cf3-6b6f-4cae-8ba9-79217de5220d", "symbol": "000157", "name": "Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.471, "architecture_energy": 28.851, "architecture_maturity": 77.835, "architecture_confidence": 84.595, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.6, "rotation_up": 26.97, "upward_expansion": 20.24, "deceleration": 46.69, "rotation_down": 37.97, "downward_expansion": 63.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.315374, 7.261882, 7.38899, 7.706714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.22, "trend_reference": 8.125515, "distance_from_trend": -0.111441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.089014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.706074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176739, "excess_performance": -0.184139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035942, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018477, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284503086, "relative_activity": 0.896329, "balance": 0.58503, "dry_up": 0.873359, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064115, "annualized_volatility": 0.285286, "from_high_reference": -0.28937, "from_low_reference": 0.068966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.125515, "fair_value_reference": 7.089014, "structural_low": 6.75419, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.005674, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00783, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.205217, "worst_return": -0.15006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012426, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.144348, "worst_return": -0.160428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02394, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.250367, "worst_return": -0.125434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.914943, "energy": 71.745611, "activity_lines": [ 7.066176, 7.186542, 7.495401, 7.85936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.39, "volume": 289338174, "typical_volume": 332200191.7, "trend": 8.191405, "fair_value": 7.069947, "relative_strength": -7.923687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.945402, "energy": 50.072794, "activity_lines": [ 7.147147, 7.209352, 7.448375, 7.805887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.6, "volume": 250270699, "typical_volume": 321558193.25, "trend": 8.16577, "fair_value": 7.080748, "relative_strength": -3.614086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.079519, "energy": 33.722187, "activity_lines": [ 7.310785, 7.27289, 7.433063, 7.767732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.22, "volume": 284503086, "typical_volume": 317409069.7, "trend": 8.125515, "fair_value": 7.089014, "relative_strength": -12.706074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.471326, "energy": 28.851487, "activity_lines": [ 7.315374, 7.261882, 7.38899, 7.706714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }