{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b94d4a5-ab0b-4533-a7fa-a1097b29a77f", "symbol": "FLX-B", "name": "Purpose Global Flexible Credit Fund - ETF Non-currency hedged CAD", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.829, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.526, "architecture_energy": 24.26, "architecture_maturity": 57.986, "architecture_confidence": 73.393, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.26, "rotation_up": 22.68, "upward_expansion": 55.34, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 32.79, "downward_expansion": 19.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.523293, 8.573089, 8.523813, 8.46999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.52, "trend_reference": 8.416234, "distance_from_trend": 0.012329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.820722, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089413, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.861505, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017992, "excess_performance": -0.102429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012329, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089413, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029678, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.775455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1293, "relative_activity": 0.381006, "balance": 0.775455, "dry_up": 1.701929, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01646, "annualized_volatility": 0.062973, "from_high_reference": -0.032181, "from_low_reference": 0.053645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.416234, "fair_value_reference": 7.820722, "structural_low": 8.158806, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017323, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021287, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.019952, "worst_return": -0.023292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013756, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052165, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043255, "worst_return": -0.015743, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.076251, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109869, "worst_return": 0.042633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02585, "active": 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55.080628, "activity_lines": [ 8.631149, 8.606705, 8.502297, 8.450174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.535028, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 3812.7, "trend": 8.410068, "fair_value": 7.811481, "relative_strength": -7.906967, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.366392, "energy": 39.439155, "activity_lines": [ 8.591332, 8.602432, 8.513055, 8.458718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.48, "volume": 9050, "typical_volume": 3889.9, "trend": 8.415227, "fair_value": 7.815998, "relative_strength": -7.732921, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.044291, "energy": 23.46145, "activity_lines": [ 8.544506, 8.584834, 8.51706, 8.46323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.52, "volume": 1293, "typical_volume": 3393.65, "trend": 8.416234, "fair_value": 7.820722, "relative_strength": -9.861505, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.525945, "energy": 24.259657, "activity_lines": [ 8.523293, 8.573089, 8.523813, 8.46999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }