{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b956501-d30d-4629-8520-7eabe381667b", "symbol": "EEA", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Eurozone Capped UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.994, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.006, "architecture_energy": 30.481, "architecture_maturity": 35.158, "architecture_confidence": 46.119, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.27, "rotation_up": 51.64, "upward_expansion": 51.44, "deceleration": 30.65, "rotation_down": 23.27, "downward_expansion": 12.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.2882, 9.253236, 9.194462, 9.177077 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.31, "trend_reference": 9.177133, "distance_from_trend": 0.014478, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.528278, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.95285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007467, "excess_performance": -0.045845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014478, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00456, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.689039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21647, "relative_activity": 1.275266, "balance": 1.689039, "dry_up": 1.526142, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023457, "annualized_volatility": 0.219444, "from_high_reference": -0.078583, "from_low_reference": 0.121011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.177133, "fair_value_reference": 8.528278, "structural_low": 8.305, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.002796, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013855, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.158937, "worst_return": -0.096183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057395, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.026307, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.21952, "worst_return": -0.210762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054764, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015994, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.099586, "worst_return": -0.130083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.146235, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.142648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.000981, "worst_return": -0.293451, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074295, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067421, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003801, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034329, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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9.170491, 9.131495, 9.147456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.271, "volume": 16464, "typical_volume": 18736.8, "trend": 9.159467, "fair_value": 8.500304, "relative_strength": -1.913807, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.547551, "energy": 28.483803, "activity_lines": [ 9.237933, 9.196927, 9.149057, 9.155557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.358, "volume": 8227, "typical_volume": 16711.4, "trend": 9.174967, "fair_value": 8.514464, "relative_strength": -2.41492, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.075232, "energy": 27.397529, "activity_lines": [ 9.272067, 9.231764, 9.175162, 9.168366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.31, "volume": 21647, "typical_volume": 16974.5, "trend": 9.177133, "fair_value": 8.528278, "relative_strength": -4.95285, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.006419, "energy": 30.480676, "activity_lines": [ 9.2882, 9.253236, 9.194462, 9.177077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }