{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b9e2e0a-6ff6-4d8e-831f-69a2a5cd1b13", "symbol": "FLCH", "name": "FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR FTSE CHINA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.491, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.683, "architecture_energy": 19.385, "architecture_maturity": 99.795, "architecture_confidence": 70.297, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.12, "rotation_up": 39.25, "upward_expansion": 23.38, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 18.67, "downward_expansion": 55.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.834933, 21.431386, 21.664547, 22.005832 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.38, "trend_reference": 22.604607, "distance_from_trend": -0.009936, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.417541, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.009846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.085784, "excess_performance": -0.211409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009936, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150098, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034933, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085784, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.082735, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 282040, "relative_activity": 0.454683, "balance": 1.082735, "dry_up": 0.991484, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037696, "annualized_volatility": 0.181255, "from_high_reference": -0.142771, "from_low_reference": 0.118441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.604607, "fair_value_reference": 19.417541, "structural_low": 20.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.022352, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.023123, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.170042, "worst_return": -0.109561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.068443, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.085904, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.221562, "worst_return": -0.147479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099222, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.081134, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.078984, "worst_return": -0.187186, "sufficient": true }, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.022, "volume": 401533, "typical_volume": 672731.45, "trend": 22.863607, "fair_value": 19.330878, "relative_strength": -17.899039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.195305, "energy": 57.472573, "activity_lines": [ 20.843883, 21.071832, 21.687069, 22.168078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.23, "volume": 1415798, "typical_volume": 690184.0, "trend": 22.76194, "fair_value": 19.351735, "relative_strength": -16.244047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.572663, "energy": 45.745486, "activity_lines": [ 20.989467, 21.050284, 21.606529, 22.062684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.18, "volume": 360703, "typical_volume": 686199.35, "trend": 22.679273, "fair_value": 19.381651, "relative_strength": -13.149726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.026732, "energy": 20.371244, "activity_lines": [ 21.442533, 21.224237, 21.623657, 22.02514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.38, "volume": 282040, "typical_volume": 620300.85, "trend": 22.604607, "fair_value": 19.417541, "relative_strength": -15.009846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.682859, "energy": 19.385074, "activity_lines": [ 21.834933, 21.431386, 21.664547, 22.005832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }