{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b9e2fd1-7b49-4e63-9b67-ac70fcb5ec6f", "symbol": "300147", "name": "Xiangxue Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.329, "architecture_energy": 84.471, "architecture_maturity": 21.648, "architecture_confidence": 83.612, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 8.15, "upward_expansion": 20.38, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 80.24, "downward_expansion": 96.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.196667, 7.932909, 8.809571, 9.127677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.8, "trend_reference": 9.404333, "distance_from_trend": -0.170595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.749038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.887453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173729, "excess_performance": -0.181129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65986004, "relative_activity": 1.229462, "balance": 0.605132, "dry_up": 1.400308, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129783, "annualized_volatility": 0.600405, "from_high_reference": -0.390149, "from_low_reference": 0.322034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.404333, "fair_value_reference": 7.749038, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.036038, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.039109, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.548913, "worst_return": -0.264574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.178341, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.160486, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.223618, "worst_return": -0.056239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.394834, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.405732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.641791, "worst_return": -0.022847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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9.489333, 9.666, 9.860714, 9.824065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.42, "volume": 123418341, "typical_volume": 49928711.55, "trend": 9.627333, "fair_value": 7.712628, "relative_strength": -34.10823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.58058, "energy": 79.906495, "activity_lines": [ 8.441333, 9.038182, 9.530952, 9.610688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.34, "volume": 55199968, "typical_volume": 50794309.35, "trend": 9.531667, "fair_value": 7.720064, "relative_strength": -34.734023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.043218, "energy": 91.169242, "activity_lines": [ 7.570667, 8.471273, 9.209952, 9.398602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.98, "volume": 56017227, "typical_volume": 51886790.6, "trend": 9.447667, "fair_value": 7.732051, "relative_strength": -26.703708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.038847, "energy": 88.681035, "activity_lines": [ 7.150667, 8.099273, 8.964714, 9.233978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.8, "volume": 65986004, "typical_volume": 53670621.75, "trend": 9.404333, "fair_value": 7.749038, "relative_strength": -21.887453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.329021, "energy": 84.471159, "activity_lines": [ 7.196667, 7.932909, 8.809571, 9.127677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }