{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ba27bf1-143f-4e95-85f7-e0a108e2a4fc", "symbol": "603677", "name": "Qijing Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.96, "architecture_energy": 43.483, "architecture_maturity": 53.847, "architecture_confidence": 84.095, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.85, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 6.24, "deceleration": 60.54, "rotation_down": 53.01, "downward_expansion": 79.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.040667, 13.218, 14.234357, 14.831391 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.31, "trend_reference": 15.718732, "distance_from_trend": -0.15324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.115674, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.922468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251112, "excess_performance": -0.207908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251112, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.320367, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8967400, "relative_activity": 0.726104, "balance": 1.320367, "dry_up": 1.339038, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117667, "annualized_volatility": 0.418987, "from_high_reference": -0.373024, "from_low_reference": 0.097279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.718732, "fair_value_reference": 15.115674, "structural_low": 12.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.042133, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.003937, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.161479, "worst_return": -0.141778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004425, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061887, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.216585, "worst_return": -0.187713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142439, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.138237, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.661539, "worst_return": -0.227227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -64.359169, "energy": 70.753114, "activity_lines": [ 13.446, 14.115273, 14.900348, 15.460139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.32, "volume": 20501178, "typical_volume": 12232110.1, "trend": 16.040524, "fair_value": 15.12985, "relative_strength": -26.722047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.026432, "energy": 56.041862, "activity_lines": [ 13.098667, 13.642182, 14.611855, 15.20842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.76, "volume": 8814847, "typical_volume": 12286442.45, "trend": 15.873424, "fair_value": 15.114419, "relative_strength": -23.737635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.228901, "energy": 51.695466, "activity_lines": [ 12.973333, 13.334909, 14.387519, 14.996774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.31, "volume": 8967400, "typical_volume": 12350027.5, "trend": 15.718732, "fair_value": 15.115674, "relative_strength": -21.922468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.959657, "energy": 43.482535, "activity_lines": [ 13.040667, 13.218, 14.234357, 14.831391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }