{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bae7c9f-e250-4243-8192-f5f047188054", "symbol": "VGAS", "name": "Verde Clean Fuels Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.3, "architecture_energy": 41.736, "architecture_maturity": 41.457, "architecture_confidence": 86.335, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.78, "rotation_up": 22.09, "upward_expansion": 5.35, "deceleration": 56.35, "rotation_down": 52.51, "downward_expansion": 78.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.12296, 1.144516, 1.335602, 1.429308 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.34, "trend_reference": 1.549853, "distance_from_trend": -0.135402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.194587, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.58054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.144467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.187454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233009, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.58054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.451445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.826304, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9382409, "relative_activity": 14.898779, "balance": 8.826304, "dry_up": 3.896665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233163, "annualized_volatility": 1.169985, "from_high_reference": -0.60472, "from_low_reference": 0.456522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.549853, "fair_value_reference": 3.194587, "structural_low": 0.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.010257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049077, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 1.535545, "worst_return": -0.237548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.208567, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.236708, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.744526, "worst_return": -0.360129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.38668, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.553333, "worst_return": -0.52381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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1.419273, 1.561143, 1.61206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.07, "volume": 199245, "typical_volume": 186608.6, "trend": 1.703027, "fair_value": 3.303467, "relative_strength": -59.755922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.571617, "energy": 72.791838, "activity_lines": [ 1.167333, 1.332, 1.51019, 1.56765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.08, "volume": 86425, "typical_volume": 182122.75, "trend": 1.652027, "fair_value": 3.277569, "relative_strength": -56.6604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.627703, "energy": 76.132492, "activity_lines": [ 1.112, 1.261273, 1.461333, 1.527455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9448, "volume": 96958, "typical_volume": 179735.75, "trend": 1.603187, "fair_value": 3.248562, "relative_strength": -60.628111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.273715, "energy": 80.092011, "activity_lines": [ 1.032933, 1.178691, 1.401648, 1.481827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.02, "volume": 249805, "typical_volume": 179167.0, "trend": 1.570853, "fair_value": 3.220805, "relative_strength": -56.842486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.540107, "energy": 69.719897, "activity_lines": [ 1.01728, 1.125331, 1.351339, 1.444202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.34, "volume": 9382409, "typical_volume": 629743.5, "trend": 1.549853, "fair_value": 3.194587, "relative_strength": -45.144467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.300334, "energy": 41.735922, "activity_lines": [ 1.12296, 1.144516, 1.335602, 1.429308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }