{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bafb534-af12-4fb0-aee2-4e71ac5f3641", "symbol": "C1MG34", "name": "Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.629, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.247, "architecture_energy": 11.273, "architecture_maturity": 24.282, "architecture_confidence": 64.433, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.99, "rotation_up": 28.29, "upward_expansion": 29.76, "deceleration": 41.28, "rotation_down": 31.03, "downward_expansion": 49.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.754, 8.713091, 8.533762, 8.614194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.37, "trend_reference": 8.912, "distance_from_trend": -0.060817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.672173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.339498, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.972052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176181, "excess_performance": -0.119133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.339498, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039644, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.239428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176181, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.144634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136222, "relative_activity": 7.00862, "balance": 0.144634, "dry_up": 2.424555, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081702, "annualized_volatility": 0.435842, "from_high_reference": -0.3025, "from_low_reference": 0.113032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.912, "fair_value_reference": 12.672173, "structural_low": 7.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02385, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.030415, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.088268, "worst_return": -0.239664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.07351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114622, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247436, "worst_return": -0.278424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.139609, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.144691, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.112672, "worst_return": -0.343023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.134018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016588, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.602652, "worst_return": -0.334615, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.433902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069602, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052198, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063815, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213894, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047782, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.2, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 7105.0, "trend": 8.63846, "fair_value": 8.147151, "relative_strength": 5.498964, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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12.680287, "relative_strength": -15.712232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.12829, "energy": 24.479876, "activity_lines": [ 8.849333, 8.568545, 8.471143, 8.675441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.16, "volume": 25367, "typical_volume": 17536.65, "trend": 9.007, "fair_value": 12.674441, "relative_strength": -20.644335, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.560546, "energy": 22.166552, "activity_lines": [ 8.662667, 8.523636, 8.437476, 8.615806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.6, "volume": 26377, "typical_volume": 18806.05, "trend": 8.988, "fair_value": 12.676606, "relative_strength": -7.665751, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.84711, "energy": 21.59611, "activity_lines": [ 8.945333, 8.742727, 8.546571, 8.654065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.37, "volume": 136222, "typical_volume": 19436.35, "trend": 8.912, "fair_value": 12.672173, "relative_strength": -15.972052, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.246596, "energy": 11.273033, "activity_lines": [ 8.754, 8.713091, 8.533762, 8.614194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }