{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8bb55eec-75c6-4d3d-879f-0b52d91ef577",
    "symbol": "AEEM",
    "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF EUR Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 70.27,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 24.978,
    "architecture_energy": 24.14,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.269,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.998,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.6,
        "rotation_up": 18.15,
        "upward_expansion": 52.29,
        "deceleration": 93.99,
        "rotation_down": 35.77,
        "downward_expansion": 18.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.443267,
        7.565491,
        7.543867,
        7.36728
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 7.518,
    "trend_reference": 7.137133,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.053364,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.482067,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37138,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.359986,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.130017,
    "excess_performance": -0.040875,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053364,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076361,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.37138,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084251,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0236,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.12813,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130017,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.949253,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 767794,
      "relative_activity": 0.779242,
      "balance": 0.949253,
      "dry_up": 1.047322,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.04371,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.224399,
      "from_high_reference": -0.073339,
      "from_low_reference": 0.374657
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.137133,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.482067,
      "structural_low": 6.23,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.014012,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007861,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.132267,
        "worst_return": -0.017691,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.056585,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.022503,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.237763,
        "worst_return": -0.004703,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.064898,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.047252,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.336036,
        "worst_return": 0.000336,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.087523,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.159119,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.132721,
        "worst_return": 0.042324,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.027778,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.090647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.046672,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.02124,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.037058,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.103055,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.068213,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.099322,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037227,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": 0.013071,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "fair_value": 5.425843,
        "relative_strength": -1.358865,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 44.988983,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 1086642.65,
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        "fair_value": 5.443779,
        "relative_strength": 0.127641,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 36.711649,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "volume": 1263858,
        "typical_volume": 992543.0,
        "trend": 7.1015,
        "fair_value": 5.462042,
        "relative_strength": -1.517441,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.862746,
        "energy": 24.166586,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.518,
        "volume": 767794,
        "typical_volume": 985308.5,
        "trend": 7.137133,
        "fair_value": 5.482067,
        "relative_strength": -2.359986,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.977774,
        "energy": 24.139978,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}