{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bb5d8d9-000a-446b-86b9-a052467ce89e", "symbol": "00673R", "name": "Yuanta S&P GSCI Crude Oil 1x Inverse ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.813, "architecture_energy": 50.132, "architecture_maturity": 54.949, "architecture_confidence": 69.22, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.39, "rotation_up": 11.43, "upward_expansion": 13.06, "deceleration": 62.98, "rotation_down": 65.27, "downward_expansion": 72.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.191333, 13.822727, 13.595381, 14.726043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.54, "trend_reference": 17.227, "distance_from_trend": -0.214024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.732628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261574, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.428288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.463337, "excess_performance": -0.842649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037968, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.434283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.463337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.830008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81642014, "relative_activity": 0.754547, "balance": 0.830008, "dry_up": 0.98673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087604, "annualized_volatility": 0.640293, "from_high_reference": -0.542103, "from_low_reference": 1.132283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.227, "fair_value_reference": 10.732628, "structural_low": 11.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.010691, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.013988, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.305691, "worst_return": -0.259227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007426, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.002521, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 3.362791, "worst_return": -0.323216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012857, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.080793, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.779104, "worst_return": -0.33224, "sufficient": true }, { 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02707, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044643, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.07859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 10.670192, "relative_strength": -49.931921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.739991, "energy": 47.602353, "activity_lines": [ 13.779333, 14.015273, 13.765143, 15.328301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.07, "volume": 149013939, "typical_volume": 106663761.05, "trend": 17.721333, "fair_value": 10.69891, "relative_strength": -43.908242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.714548, "energy": 51.3446, "activity_lines": [ 13.318667, 13.887636, 13.643667, 14.995806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.54, "volume": 81642014, "typical_volume": 108200022.7, "trend": 17.227, "fair_value": 10.732628, "relative_strength": -43.428288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.812611, "energy": 50.131681, "activity_lines": [ 13.191333, 13.822727, 13.595381, 14.726043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }