{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bbddc2a-3f48-47c1-989f-c7ae069c45d9", "symbol": "SPPP", "name": "Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.019, "architecture_energy": 34.983, "architecture_maturity": 78.065, "architecture_confidence": 91.393, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.53, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 16.96, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 41.16, "downward_expansion": 69.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.479333, 13.300182, 13.873333, 14.481398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.24, "trend_reference": 15.518, "distance_from_trend": -0.082356, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.663814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.586466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173055, "excess_performance": -0.298679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082356, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05108, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4298699, "relative_activity": 1.601195, "balance": 0.84136, "dry_up": 1.173141, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070045, "annualized_volatility": 0.344828, "from_high_reference": -0.401932, "from_low_reference": 0.230769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.518, "fair_value_reference": 11.663814, "structural_low": 12.155, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.001068, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.01051, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.158626, "worst_return": -0.146154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008885, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.098576, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.193049, "worst_return": -0.159835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011299, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043942, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.350427, "worst_return": -0.148661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045719, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063602, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045576, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.83, "volume": 138580, "typical_volume": 220002.8, "trend": 11.98582, "fair_value": 15.23319, "relative_strength": -22.342364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"direction": -67.670249, "energy": 79.912274, "activity_lines": [ 13.075333, 13.532545, 14.405143, 15.145828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.88, "volume": 2835898, "typical_volume": 2912999.35, "trend": 16.038667, "fair_value": 11.617276, "relative_strength": -20.89428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.556815, "energy": 65.81979, "activity_lines": [ 12.986667, 13.317636, 14.19381, 14.93428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.84, "volume": 2859796, "typical_volume": 2862648.15, "trend": 15.802, "fair_value": 11.628109, "relative_strength": -20.494039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.92135, "energy": 58.317834, "activity_lines": [ 12.919333, 13.152545, 14.007524, 14.727914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.41, "volume": 2603656, "typical_volume": 2819404.65, "trend": 15.669, "fair_value": 11.643301, "relative_strength": -17.74469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.660741, "energy": 50.883963, "activity_lines": [ 13.081333, 13.137636, 13.895, 14.573591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.24, "volume": 4298699, "typical_volume": 2684682.45, "trend": 15.518, "fair_value": 11.663814, "relative_strength": -15.586466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.019027, "energy": 34.982941, "activity_lines": [ 13.479333, 13.300182, 13.873333, 14.481398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }