{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bbe128e-557a-4e6f-ad19-50f6cb5d80e2", "symbol": "603338", "name": "Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.68, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.838, "architecture_energy": 45.721, "architecture_maturity": 7.861, "architecture_confidence": 79.176, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.38, "rotation_up": 64.84, "upward_expansion": 46.83, "deceleration": 25.26, "rotation_down": 14.28, "downward_expansion": 21.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.249333, 53.3034, 52.183356, 52.242167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.98, "trend_reference": 53.090309, "distance_from_trend": 0.073266, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.266343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069719, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.740466, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013879, "excess_performance": 0.057083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069719, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025398, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067405, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096071, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013879, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29979549, "relative_activity": 1.214989, "balance": 0.687568, "dry_up": 1.361872, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079903, "annualized_volatility": 0.425292, "from_high_reference": -0.117957, "from_low_reference": 0.314418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.090309, "fair_value_reference": 53.266343, "structural_low": 43.349998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023255, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024391, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.150271, "worst_return": -0.125358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018208, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388652, "worst_return": -0.178433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02898, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.036962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074836, "worst_return": -0.298152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.0, "volume": 41875469, "typical_volume": 24097011.65, "trend": 52.981309, "fair_value": 53.249674, "relative_strength": 10.491561, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.791566, "energy": 15.854028, "activity_lines": [ 52.433999, 50.56631, 50.849778, 51.602185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.0, "volume": 32623097, "typical_volume": 24215487.55, "trend": 53.078976, "fair_value": 53.276844, "relative_strength": 13.73727, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.793542, "energy": 36.359694, "activity_lines": [ 55.195333, 52.161596, 51.627638, 51.990488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.98, "volume": 29979549, "typical_volume": 24674744.3, "trend": 53.090309, "fair_value": 53.266343, "relative_strength": 6.740466, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.838173, "energy": 45.72144, "activity_lines": [ 56.249333, 53.3034, 52.183356, 52.242167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }