{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bc59b70-0094-47ef-96b9-0693ffb147dd", "symbol": "HRL-FK43", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4A) Kosher TA 125", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.514, "architecture_energy": 63.731, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.413, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.03, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 52.73, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.909333, 39.900364, 937.850095, 1724.510796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.64, "trend_reference": 2612.916667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2408.285256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98354, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.77616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989972, "excess_performance": -1.018872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98354, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.735249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.970908, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.192363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221578, "relative_activity": 0.714346, "balance": 0.192363, "dry_up": 0.891094, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.637429, "annualized_volatility": 6.33955, "from_high_reference": -0.991173, "from_low_reference": 0.030681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2612.916667, "fair_value_reference": 2408.285256, "structural_low": 38.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.00494, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.001861, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.086498, "worst_return": -0.06646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091652, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002125, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.122838, "worst_return": -0.084107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009366, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011469, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.154699, "worst_return": -0.010567, "sufficient": false }, { 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1135.183714, 1898.679957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.64, "volume": 221578, "typical_volume": 310183.0, "trend": 2612.916667, "fair_value": 2408.285256, "relative_strength": -98.77616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.514171, "energy": 63.730713, "activity_lines": [ 39.909333, 39.900364, 937.850095, 1724.510796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }