{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bc70198-c9af-4449-a3ef-d4d520ad7610", "symbol": "FMET", "name": "Fulcrum Metals plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.809, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.647, "architecture_energy": 51.389, "architecture_maturity": 18.669, "architecture_confidence": 82.033, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.22, "rotation_up": 14.45, "upward_expansion": 9.49, "deceleration": 42.1, "rotation_down": 66.29, "downward_expansion": 87.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.076, 0.078523, 0.082018, 0.085352 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.086542, "distance_from_trend": -0.133365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.100599, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.331745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.194092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01982, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.774601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 757527, "relative_activity": 0.438078, "balance": 5.774601, "dry_up": 0.491631, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141897, "annualized_volatility": 0.694716, "from_high_reference": -0.464286, "from_low_reference": 1.238806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.086542, "fair_value_reference": 0.100599, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.73064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.320755, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.1525, "volume": 15488, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.1525, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.193526, "energy": 41.669986, "activity_lines": [ 0.081583, 0.084341, 0.086887, 0.087672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.08, "volume": 984132, "typical_volume": 1976511.1, "trend": 0.085083, "fair_value": 0.102051, "relative_strength": 4.046451, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.966181, "energy": 46.960359, "activity_lines": [ 0.080333, 0.083432, 0.085827, 0.087387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.075, "volume": 711800, "typical_volume": 1942427.45, "trend": 0.0855, "fair_value": 0.101574, "relative_strength": -4.459916, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.24581, "energy": 51.84495, "activity_lines": [ 0.078083, 0.081568, 0.084375, 0.086737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.075, "volume": 947061, "typical_volume": 1784580.25, "trend": 0.085958, "fair_value": 0.101096, "relative_strength": -6.34147, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.086479, "energy": 45.049165, "activity_lines": [ 0.076833, 0.079932, 0.083065, 0.086059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 757527, "typical_volume": 1729204.1, "trend": 0.086542, "fair_value": 0.100599, "relative_strength": -7.331745, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.647425, "energy": 51.388898, "activity_lines": [ 0.076, 0.078523, 0.082018, 0.085352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }