{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bc715ad-0be3-499a-9801-2219f9fdc7d3", "symbol": "HAVI", "name": "Havila Shipping ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.209, "architecture_energy": 4.614, "architecture_maturity": 39.632, "architecture_confidence": 72.483, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.36, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 22.39, "deceleration": 48.85, "rotation_down": 26.97, "downward_expansion": 24.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.136667, 1.130364, 1.154214, 1.161123 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.14, "trend_reference": 1.1394, "distance_from_trend": 0.000527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.262269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.65055, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.522009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123153, "excess_performance": -0.001841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.65055, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064335, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.897136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 609302, "relative_activity": 0.325567, "balance": 0.897136, "dry_up": 0.205132, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105938, "annualized_volatility": 0.607597, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.592179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.1394, "fair_value_reference": 3.262269, "structural_low": 0.91, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.008403, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.004713, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 1.507463, "worst_return": -0.143836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.140187, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.087807, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.75, "worst_return": -0.567164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.265546, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.265497, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.621212, "worst_return": -0.642537, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.848629, "energy": 29.357026, "activity_lines": [ 1.113667, 1.145364, 1.174262, 1.156428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.12, "volume": 298078, "typical_volume": 2211654.6, "trend": 1.110867, "fair_value": 3.470474, "relative_strength": -15.257314, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.96783, "energy": 24.381467, "activity_lines": [ 1.113, 1.136364, 1.168095, 1.157654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.125, "volume": 190276, "typical_volume": 2184800.75, "trend": 1.1221, "fair_value": 3.396532, "relative_strength": -16.1352, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.898986, "energy": 13.075377, "activity_lines": [ 1.117, 1.129909, 1.162429, 1.158566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.155, "volume": 437970, "typical_volume": 2134190.05, "trend": 1.133267, "fair_value": 3.328167, "relative_strength": -13.407966, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.805697, "energy": 6.914192, "activity_lines": [ 1.132, 1.131273, 1.159357, 1.160688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.14, "volume": 609302, "typical_volume": 1871511.35, "trend": 1.1394, "fair_value": 3.262269, "relative_strength": -13.522009, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.208828, "energy": 4.614075, "activity_lines": [ 1.136667, 1.130364, 1.154214, 1.161123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }