{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bd0eba1-829e-487b-ae35-ac50c4ee58d2", "symbol": "KSM-F12", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) S&P Energy", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.006, "architecture_energy": 63.222, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.296, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.75, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 47.12, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.129333, 39.974545, 1068.72619, 1838.605161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.78, "trend_reference": 2661.953, "distance_from_trend": -0.98468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3422.362756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.768508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989232, "excess_performance": -1.018132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293349, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.03436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987685, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.797483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.2003, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18518, "relative_activity": 0.647252, "balance": 2.2003, "dry_up": 0.640366, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.605972, "annualized_volatility": 6.299901, "from_high_reference": -0.991297, "from_low_reference": 0.105449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2661.953, "fair_value_reference": 3422.362756, "structural_low": 36.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.027584, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005568, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.167374, "worst_return": -0.128431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075482, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026534, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.19325, "worst_return": -0.152235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082162, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.102116, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.513645, "worst_return": -0.104868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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87.9847, "activity_lines": [ 38.52, 459.640909, 1760.816905, 2388.612581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.18, "volume": 23668, "typical_volume": 32740.85, "trend": 2883.927, "fair_value": 3467.639808, "relative_strength": -98.815808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.906141, "energy": 67.872056, "activity_lines": [ 39.891333, 247.753091, 1510.864381, 2198.351871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.0, "volume": 10914, "typical_volume": 29871.7, "trend": 2774.927, "fair_value": 3445.4475, "relative_strength": -98.759739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.438181, "energy": 67.07819, "activity_lines": [ 40.868667, 106.411091, 1280.008143, 2015.001742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.78, "volume": 18518, "typical_volume": 28610.2, "trend": 2661.953, "fair_value": 3422.362756, "relative_strength": -98.768508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.006141, "energy": 63.221766, "activity_lines": [ 41.129333, 39.974545, 1068.72619, 1838.605161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }