{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bd2f24c-73fe-43bc-b16e-ac0513e3c19b", "symbol": "002126", "name": "Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.389, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.13, "architecture_energy": 43.586, "architecture_maturity": 10.619, "architecture_confidence": 80.337, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 25.76, "deceleration": 48.84, "rotation_down": 67.11, "downward_expansion": 48.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.600667, 45.129636, 47.291356, 47.160472 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.310001, "trend_reference": 46.297978, "distance_from_trend": -0.107736, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.210749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.51815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.112985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122073, "excess_performance": 0.114673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107736, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.51815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.516295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173221, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122073, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.86942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89797606, "relative_activity": 0.927664, "balance": 0.86942, "dry_up": 1.154398, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159769, "annualized_volatility": 0.708375, "from_high_reference": -0.332367, "from_low_reference": 0.468367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.297978, "fair_value_reference": 27.210749, "structural_low": 35.508434, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.154919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302224, "worst_return": -0.049904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.212952, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.111298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.74444, "worst_return": -0.146887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.317339, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.120115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.750981, "worst_return": -0.246589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 46.143265, "fair_value": 26.913957, "relative_strength": -1.092219, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.700674, "energy": 10.922288, "activity_lines": [ 46.451334, 48.442182, 48.793133, 47.97155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.439999, "volume": 111824316, "typical_volume": 97471409.25, "trend": 46.178444, "fair_value": 27.050558, "relative_strength": -5.799229, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.976448, "energy": 39.698144, "activity_lines": [ 43.184, 46.338182, 47.88787, 47.474565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.310001, "volume": 89797606, "typical_volume": 96799713.4, "trend": 46.297978, "fair_value": 27.210749, "relative_strength": -4.112985, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.129729, "energy": 43.586261, "activity_lines": [ 41.600667, 45.129636, 47.291356, 47.160472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }