{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bd690a4-7c12-4944-a195-3894671830ad", "symbol": "VIXM", "name": "ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.687, "architecture_energy": 60.005, "architecture_maturity": 41.927, "architecture_confidence": 95.585, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.83, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 10.78, "deceleration": 59.15, "rotation_down": 55.24, "downward_expansion": 84.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.457333, 14.533273, 14.939476, 15.27172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.35, "trend_reference": 15.512667, "distance_from_trend": -0.07495, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.034422, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.916979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056542, "excess_performance": -0.182167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023081, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056542, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4987704, "relative_activity": 3.126895, "balance": 0.563036, "dry_up": 1.682644, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028709, "annualized_volatility": 0.163558, "from_high_reference": -0.190181, "from_low_reference": 0.015469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.512667, "fair_value_reference": 16.034422, "structural_low": 14.1314, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.001898, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.026847, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.128284, "worst_return": -0.154604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.048671, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.112403, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.208579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097835, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.180234, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117871, "worst_return": -0.32625, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053272, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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-67.722253, "energy": 87.132162, "activity_lines": [ 14.476, 14.773091, 15.268333, 15.479871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.62, "volume": 2243268, "typical_volume": 1493393.8, "trend": 15.558, "fair_value": 16.10814, "relative_strength": -14.723526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.699686, "energy": 84.355159, "activity_lines": [ 14.496667, 14.695091, 15.161762, 15.41828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.47, "volume": 1393266, "typical_volume": 1417622.75, "trend": 15.533667, "fair_value": 16.069999, "relative_strength": -15.93129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.83931, "energy": 72.247115, "activity_lines": [ 14.490667, 14.613636, 15.050476, 15.348086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.35, "volume": 4987704, "typical_volume": 1595098.1, "trend": 15.512667, "fair_value": 16.034422, "relative_strength": -18.916979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.68659, "energy": 60.005096, "activity_lines": [ 14.457333, 14.533273, 14.939476, 15.27172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }