{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bd7107a-3a10-427b-ac35-571f6fcd8348", "symbol": "QQQY", "name": "Evolve NASDAQ Technology Enhanced Yield Index Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.533, "architecture_energy": 24.737, "architecture_maturity": 68.687, "architecture_confidence": 87.611, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.18, "rotation_up": 30.06, "upward_expansion": 57.46, "deceleration": 88.13, "rotation_down": 28.03, "downward_expansion": 18.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.889206, 29.003068, 28.898811, 28.10873 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.809999, "trend_reference": 27.170311, "distance_from_trend": 0.097153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.523883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.126751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.18081, "excess_performance": 0.060389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384973, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007715, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011268, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18081, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.953717, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44900, "relative_activity": 1.108642, "balance": 1.953717, "dry_up": 1.144444, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043182, "annualized_volatility": 0.234973, "from_high_reference": -0.028945, "from_low_reference": 0.324866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.170311, "fair_value_reference": 21.523883, "structural_low": 22.523768, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040329, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026854, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.00362, "worst_return": -0.077786, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.059918, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059918, "worst_return": 0.059918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.091046, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012408, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.091046, "worst_return": 0.091046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015355, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003773, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00362, 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27.054432, "fair_value": 21.467515, "relative_strength": -0.731365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.614012, "energy": 20.487668, "activity_lines": [ 28.533146, 28.891414, 28.71572, 27.930951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.809999, "volume": 44900, "typical_volume": 40500.0, "trend": 27.170311, "fair_value": 21.523883, "relative_strength": 1.126751, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.533083, "energy": 24.737129, "activity_lines": [ 28.889206, 29.003068, 28.898811, 28.10873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }