{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8be00b6b-1129-44e4-b1d5-604ea5404e8e", "symbol": "301001", "name": "Shanghai Kaytune Industrial Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.896, "architecture_energy": 51.705, "architecture_maturity": 85.655, "architecture_confidence": 92.099, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 25.08, "upward_expansion": 8.34, "deceleration": 60.85, "rotation_down": 53.36, "downward_expansion": 81.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.439334, 22.586, 24.479524, 26.012516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.530001, "trend_reference": 28.205, "distance_from_trend": -0.165751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.746211, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.821487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333617, "excess_performance": -0.341016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165751, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333617, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.345343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8440320, "relative_activity": 1.454716, "balance": 0.345343, "dry_up": 1.269799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099317, "annualized_volatility": 0.36554, "from_high_reference": -0.451259, "from_low_reference": 0.206048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.205, "fair_value_reference": 26.746211, "structural_low": 19.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01244, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006561, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.132516, "worst_return": -0.199501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026637, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059318, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.281494, "worst_return": -0.25187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.083197, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.207855, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193881, "worst_return": -0.304493, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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27.248903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.139999, "volume": 7094494, "typical_volume": 5723628.25, "trend": 28.582334, "fair_value": 26.808796, "relative_strength": -32.868316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.628063, "energy": 75.964214, "activity_lines": [ 21.620667, 22.725455, 25.071667, 26.685914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.02, "volume": 7355801, "typical_volume": 5717592.4, "trend": 28.405334, "fair_value": 26.77829, "relative_strength": -21.359932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.473792, "energy": 59.835361, "activity_lines": [ 21.980667, 22.556182, 24.73281, 26.327054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.530001, "volume": 8440320, "typical_volume": 5802038.45, "trend": 28.205, "fair_value": 26.746211, "relative_strength": -22.821487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.89607, "energy": 51.705288, "activity_lines": [ 22.439334, 22.586, 24.479524, 26.012516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }