{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8be55808-9df9-4fe3-bcdb-4d4ece2d75df", "symbol": "AIZ", "name": "Air New Zealand Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.511, "architecture_energy": 33.405, "architecture_maturity": 83.022, "architecture_confidence": 88.805, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.74, "rotation_up": 20.57, "upward_expansion": 3.15, "deceleration": 55.82, "rotation_down": 50.56, "downward_expansion": 76.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.351333, 0.354409, 0.354917, 0.364672 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.355, "trend_reference": 0.39, "distance_from_trend": -0.089744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.497234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28605, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.189841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.279188, "excess_performance": -0.342893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120797, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028695, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1302698, "relative_activity": 0.914302, "balance": 0.884117, "dry_up": 0.636838, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065005, "annualized_volatility": 0.366996, "from_high_reference": -0.354545, "from_low_reference": 0.092308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.39, "fair_value_reference": 0.497234, "structural_low": 0.325, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.008544, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.119412, "worst_return": -0.28866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.029109, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.327433, "worst_return": -0.29703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054052, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.067594, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.274334, "worst_return": -0.377626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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35.22718, "activity_lines": [ 0.355833, 0.356818, 0.356571, 0.374059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.35, "volume": 978025, "typical_volume": 1852587.95, "trend": 0.400167, "fair_value": 0.500456, "relative_strength": -22.293791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.484464, "energy": 31.907871, "activity_lines": [ 0.352333, 0.355955, 0.35556, 0.370489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.35, "volume": 890259, "typical_volume": 1562690.75, "trend": 0.395, "fair_value": 0.498829, "relative_strength": -23.475013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.989968, "energy": 36.689496, "activity_lines": [ 0.350833, 0.354727, 0.354952, 0.367253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.355, "volume": 1302698, "typical_volume": 1424800.15, "trend": 0.39, "fair_value": 0.497234, "relative_strength": -24.189841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.511194, "energy": 33.405498, "activity_lines": [ 0.351333, 0.354409, 0.354917, 0.364672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }