{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8be93d02-91a4-4f0d-b8d3-0936fde9c675", "symbol": "SII", "name": "Sprott Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.625, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.259, "architecture_energy": 66.311, "architecture_maturity": 9.642, "architecture_confidence": 89.829, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 16.99, "upward_expansion": 14.75, "deceleration": 39.47, "rotation_down": 62.74, "downward_expansion": 88.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 151.817331, 154.757452, 163.795054, 170.873284 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 164.199997, "trend_reference": 176.659749, "distance_from_trend": -0.07053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.604159, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.853186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.26438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017492, "excess_performance": -0.10293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07053, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.853186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.597194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017492, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.269332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 345000, "relative_activity": 1.216288, "balance": 0.269332, "dry_up": 1.086286, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080329, "annualized_volatility": 0.506731, "from_high_reference": -0.285201, "from_low_reference": 0.932324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 176.659749, "fair_value_reference": 88.604159, "structural_low": 142.610001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008719, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.000946, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.088294, "worst_return": -0.085241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043248, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.065367, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.247704, "worst_return": -0.034162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11747, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.08964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.497235, "worst_return": -0.057942, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 145.779999, "volume": 342300, "typical_volume": 341330.0, "trend": 175.562331, "fair_value": 86.491834, "relative_strength": -9.49874, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.458551, "energy": 62.932844, "activity_lines": [ 155.120664, 161.124544, 170.994006, 175.648249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 145.179993, "volume": 249100, "typical_volume": 328455.0, "trend": 175.85543, "fair_value": 87.168065, "relative_strength": -10.374027, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.513239, "energy": 76.95503, "activity_lines": [ 150.785329, 157.359634, 167.704737, 173.688098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 144.080002, "volume": 296100, "typical_volume": 317965.0, "trend": 176.054185, "fair_value": 87.831919, "relative_strength": -10.968411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.186646, "energy": 79.446696, "activity_lines": [ 147.455998, 153.96818, 164.653489, 171.638071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.199997, "volume": 345000, "typical_volume": 283650.0, "trend": 176.659749, "fair_value": 88.604159, "relative_strength": -2.26438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.258941, "energy": 66.310661, "activity_lines": [ 151.817331, 154.757452, 163.795054, 170.873284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }