{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8beb58c8-ce0d-4081-9785-1f335e54509c",
    "symbol": "TGRW",
    "name": "T ROWE PRICE EXCHANGE TRD FDS INC GROWTH STK ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 69.564,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 40.676,
    "architecture_energy": 19.908,
    "architecture_maturity": 50.481,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.522,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 43.35,
        "rotation_up": 33.99,
        "upward_expansion": 52.47,
        "deceleration": 78.36,
        "rotation_down": 27.68,
        "downward_expansion": 25.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        46.684233,
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        46.772232,
        45.968414
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 48.18,
    "trend_reference": 45.143843,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.067255,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 38.786533,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242184,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.09118,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.10277,
    "excess_performance": -0.022855,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067255,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006859,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.242184,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034595,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050912,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013665,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.10277,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.985725,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 19473,
      "relative_activity": 0.35537,
      "balance": 0.985725,
      "dry_up": 0.335934,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036843,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.211833,
      "from_high_reference": -0.030973,
      "from_low_reference": 0.240793
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.143843,
      "fair_value_reference": 38.786533,
      "structural_low": 38.83,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.008903,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.727273,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00641,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.128835,
        "worst_return": -0.055036,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.051035,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001202,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.18573,
        "worst_return": -0.157336,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.145758,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008213,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.063935,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.064107,
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        "worst_return": 0.082116,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0272,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 102351.35,
        "trend": 44.544847,
        "fair_value": 36.988044,
        "relative_strength": -4.291795,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 40.255793,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 102112.95,
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        "fair_value": 37.132658,
        "relative_strength": -3.724642,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 102305.7,
        "trend": 44.71784,
        "fair_value": 37.274333,
        "relative_strength": -3.272337,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 102791.9,
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        "relative_strength": -3.566558,
        "stage": 3,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 102050.85,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 83390.1,
        "trend": 44.884803,
        "fair_value": 37.691812,
        "relative_strength": -4.051163,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 65.516306,
        "energy": 66.401501,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 84225.65,
        "trend": 44.914683,
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        "relative_strength": -5.435064,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 75820.8,
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        "fair_value": 37.948306,
        "relative_strength": -4.10746,
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        "energy": 46.206597,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 45.8861,
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        "typical_volume": 85567.45,
        "trend": 45.011823,
        "fair_value": 38.065326,
        "relative_strength": -5.190841,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.865656,
        "energy": 26.382257,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 74392,
        "typical_volume": 87021.3,
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        "fair_value": 38.192365,
        "relative_strength": -4.352517,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 25.09938,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 47.765,
        "volume": 45998,
        "typical_volume": 73113.25,
        "trend": 45.109737,
        "fair_value": 38.316851,
        "relative_strength": -4.427439,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.608772,
        "energy": 31.91466,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 46.1281,
        "volume": 19119,
        "typical_volume": 59651.65,
        "trend": 45.119007,
        "fair_value": 38.432052,
        "relative_strength": -6.069991,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.998995,
        "energy": 22.578635,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.85162,
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          46.497228,
          45.705196
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 45.3497,
        "volume": 16696,
        "typical_volume": 58534.85,
        "trend": 45.07717,
        "fair_value": 38.539222,
        "relative_strength": -6.917283,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.453773,
        "energy": 15.59494,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.326453,
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          46.498753,
          45.720079
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 45.8233,
        "volume": 18344,
        "typical_volume": 56215.25,
        "trend": 45.076947,
        "fair_value": 38.654245,
        "relative_strength": -6.757988,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 19.188656,
        "energy": 14.342947,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.110467,
          46.475249,
          46.532916,
          45.768217
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 48.18,
        "volume": 19473,
        "typical_volume": 54796.4,
        "trend": 45.143843,
        "fair_value": 38.786533,
        "relative_strength": -5.09118,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.676261,
        "energy": 19.908361,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}