{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8beb7243-be06-4bb5-9049-4bf9cae03ef7", "symbol": "CND", "name": "Condor Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.74, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.853, "architecture_energy": 24.439, "architecture_maturity": 16.745, "architecture_confidence": 40.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.47, "rotation_up": 52.99, "upward_expansion": 35.61, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 14.34, "downward_expansion": 15.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.018867, 0.017873, 0.017479, 0.018087 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.018817, "distance_from_trend": -0.043401, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.023276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.226659, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.267606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052632, "excess_performance": -0.116337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.226659, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142676, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092818, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.774553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2185720, "relative_activity": 0.330665, "balance": 1.774553, "dry_up": 0.642589, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 0.652128, "from_high_reference": -0.37931, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.018817, "fair_value_reference": 0.023276, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.151299, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.137369, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.541667, "worst_return": -0.846154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.363636, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.392745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.928571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.422619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.376135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.928571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.770419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.875, "worst_return": -0.875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.727273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"fair_value": 0.023179, "relative_strength": -10.74227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.242982, "energy": 20.691015, "activity_lines": [ 0.016933, 0.016327, 0.017181, 0.018006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.021, "volume": 8507951, "typical_volume": 7533074.65, "trend": 0.01895, "fair_value": 0.023224, "relative_strength": 4.65181, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.591163, "energy": 17.793758, "activity_lines": [ 0.018467, 0.017236, 0.017436, 0.018141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 3948245, "typical_volume": 7205812.45, "trend": 0.018883, "fair_value": 0.02325, "relative_strength": -7.051087, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.213466, "energy": 24.964923, "activity_lines": [ 0.019, 0.017673, 0.0175, 0.018144 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 2185720, "typical_volume": 6610073.15, "trend": 0.018817, "fair_value": 0.023276, "relative_strength": -14.267606, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.852971, "energy": 24.438675, "activity_lines": [ 0.018867, 0.017873, 0.017479, 0.018087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }