{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bec6295-474e-4de9-bfab-6d38c3b7430c", "symbol": "GAYAPROJ", "name": "Gayatri Projects Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.224, "architecture_energy": 23.463, "architecture_maturity": 67.457, "architecture_confidence": 93.282, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.58, "rotation_up": 26.22, "upward_expansion": 56.23, "deceleration": 90.9, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 19.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.518667, 21.076, 20.417, 19.071763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.09, "trend_reference": 17.114333, "distance_from_trend": 0.17387, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.987885, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.011437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 39.336538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.660331, "excess_performance": 0.70404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17387, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.011437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.393365, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.660331, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.062608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1607972, "relative_activity": 0.936138, "balance": 1.062608, "dry_up": 1.104157, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11123, "annualized_volatility": 0.482279, "from_high_reference": -0.179665, "from_low_reference": 1.477189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.114333, "fair_value_reference": 9.987885, "structural_low": 12.68, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.009841, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00901, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.507692, "worst_return": -0.209639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.21608, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.184908, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.326667, "worst_return": -0.321687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.15301, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.230695, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.631148, "worst_return": -0.443373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.365574, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.067117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411261, "worst_return": -0.680723, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016598, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107438, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025232, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.121064, "energy": 56.352596, "activity_lines": [ 21.806, 21.11, 19.560047, 17.953097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.120001, "volume": 2973159, "typical_volume": 1538188.0, "trend": 16.259667, "fair_value": 9.733718, "relative_strength": 62.703383, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.29783, "energy": 51.969514, "activity_lines": [ 21.835333, 21.433636, 19.968095, 18.353957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.73, "volume": 1626841, "typical_volume": 1611585.4, "trend": 16.566333, "fair_value": 9.819167, "relative_strength": 53.318983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.310269, "energy": 38.063413, "activity_lines": [ 21.384, 21.450546, 20.198905, 18.642366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.98, "volume": 1378319, "typical_volume": 1670663.0, "trend": 16.848, "fair_value": 9.902051, "relative_strength": 41.832636, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.740825, "energy": 29.235992, "activity_lines": [ 20.868667, 21.282182, 20.320048, 18.862602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.09, "volume": 1607972, "typical_volume": 1717665.4, "trend": 17.114333, "fair_value": 9.987885, "relative_strength": 39.336538, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.224274, "energy": 23.463279, "activity_lines": [ 20.518667, 21.076, 20.417, 19.071763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }