{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bed94f3-3583-428e-8c2b-98c0e08bd4af", "symbol": "ARCT", "name": "Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.801, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.385, "architecture_energy": 53.6, "architecture_maturity": 4.133, "architecture_confidence": 94.793, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.41, "rotation_up": 15.82, "upward_expansion": 13.65, "deceleration": 36.53, "rotation_down": 61.35, "downward_expansion": 84.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.383333, 6.583636, 7.065238, 7.241118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.41, "trend_reference": 7.397667, "distance_from_trend": 0.001667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.14766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.922666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021136, "excess_performance": -0.20859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007469, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.349227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.555324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3113891, "relative_activity": 1.386141, "balance": 0.555324, "dry_up": 1.101352, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145047, "annualized_volatility": 0.721219, "from_high_reference": -0.693422, "from_low_reference": 0.347273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.397667, "fair_value_reference": 18.14766, "structural_low": 5.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.040419, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.048594, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.536304, "worst_return": -0.359487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00332, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.773238, "worst_return": -0.492196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023843, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.104995, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.392748, "worst_return": -0.312322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 2313850.45, "trend": 7.414, "fair_value": 18.632019, "relative_strength": -47.498307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.970445, "energy": 44.208282, "activity_lines": [ 6.750667, 6.984545, 7.411429, 7.465871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.53, "volume": 2460062, "typical_volume": 2281421.3, "trend": 7.393, "fair_value": 18.44734, "relative_strength": -50.168746, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.556832, "energy": 66.712548, "activity_lines": [ 6.28, 6.691818, 7.222571, 7.344323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.76, "volume": 1680901, "typical_volume": 2243123.45, "trend": 7.376667, "fair_value": 18.278173, "relative_strength": -47.513791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.376255, "energy": 70.350379, "activity_lines": [ 6.019333, 6.476182, 7.063143, 7.238968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.41, "volume": 3113891, "typical_volume": 2246445.6, "trend": 7.397667, "fair_value": 18.14766, "relative_strength": -34.922666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.384546, "energy": 53.600377, "activity_lines": [ 6.383333, 6.583636, 7.065238, 7.241118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }