{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bf65188-5d2c-4e24-b5f7-4f76696b8e98", "symbol": "HMMJ", "name": "Global X Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.577, "architecture_energy": 54.951, "architecture_maturity": 4.773, "architecture_confidence": 92.742, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.42, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 13.89, "deceleration": 35.42, "rotation_down": 63.42, "downward_expansion": 84.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.062667, 7.126059, 7.208167, 7.221954 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.2, "trend_reference": 7.270282, "distance_from_trend": -0.009667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.411365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.496412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002426, "excess_performance": -0.122847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29900, "relative_activity": 0.81427, "balance": 0.39538, "dry_up": 0.870779, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034895, "annualized_volatility": 0.195931, "from_high_reference": -0.309552, "from_low_reference": 0.068408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.270282, "fair_value_reference": 8.411365, "structural_low": 6.739, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.033449, "positive_rate": 0.325, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.042922, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.173118, "worst_return": -0.197309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.128318, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.144408, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.337589, "worst_return": -0.302661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.266522, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.273734, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.236786, "worst_return": -0.403561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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22.279285, "activity_lines": [ 7.255994, 7.279375, 7.284394, 7.302405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.06, "volume": 26100, "typical_volume": 35310.0, "trend": 7.365775, "fair_value": 8.441163, "relative_strength": -18.75373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.492088, "energy": 33.194119, "activity_lines": [ 7.188999, 7.236007, 7.264786, 7.279407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.95, "volume": 31700, "typical_volume": 35305.0, "trend": 7.328962, "fair_value": 8.430716, "relative_strength": -19.83131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.827045, "energy": 52.917814, "activity_lines": [ 7.098557, 7.178601, 7.236687, 7.252583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.95, "volume": 40200, "typical_volume": 36730.0, "trend": 7.295787, "fair_value": 8.420932, "relative_strength": -19.121271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.851976, "energy": 64.871525, "activity_lines": [ 7.029333, 7.124987, 7.209957, 7.228134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2, "volume": 29900, "typical_volume": 36720.0, "trend": 7.270282, "fair_value": 8.411365, "relative_strength": -18.496412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.577418, "energy": 54.951119, "activity_lines": [ 7.062667, 7.126059, 7.208167, 7.221954 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }