{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8bf7d051-934d-467b-afa5-6e7db8285a98",
    "symbol": "BOW",
    "name": "Bow Street Group plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 68.902,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": 3.971,
    "architecture_energy": 11.25,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.394,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.765,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 61.1,
        "rotation_up": 32.96,
        "upward_expansion": 32.2,
        "deceleration": 35.07,
        "rotation_down": 18.45,
        "downward_expansion": 40.54
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.003493,
        0.003453,
        0.003424,
        0.003436
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.0036,
    "trend_reference": 0.003538,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.017428,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.008721,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.587226,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -19.57488,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.181818,
    "excess_performance": -0.233053,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017428,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.079757,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.587226,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080385,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.195749,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.107547,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.181818,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.762421,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 13255638,
      "relative_activity": 0.820205,
      "balance": 0.762421,
      "dry_up": 0.332998,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.05641,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.549979,
      "from_high_reference": -0.446154,
      "from_low_reference": 0.395349
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.003538,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.008721,
      "structural_low": 0.00258,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": -0.071429,
        "positive_rate": 0.117647,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.117647,
        "median_excess_return": -0.086045,
        "regime_survival": 0.470588,
        "best_return": 0.434783,
        "worst_return": -0.489362,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.214286,
        "positive_rate": 0.222222,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.222222,
        "median_excess_return": -0.188836,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
        "best_return": 0.229167,
        "worst_return": -0.489362,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.244551,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.363935,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.0625,
        "worst_return": -0.553191,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.479167,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.513013,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.380952,
        "worst_return": -0.671429,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-07-07",
        "end": "2023-09-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.093023,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-09-08",
        "end": "2023-09-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.340426,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2023-12-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.458333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.151515,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.160714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.06383,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.5,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.272727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.175,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.313131,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.058824,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 548156.3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2344098,
        "typical_volume": 19032939.4,
        "trend": 0.003597,
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        "relative_strength": -26.055949,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.048819,
        "energy": 14.350169,
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          0.0034,
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          0.00345
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.0034,
        "volume": 2217952,
        "typical_volume": 18415746.55,
        "trend": 0.003572,
        "fair_value": 0.008987,
        "relative_strength": -26.052421,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -20.047559,
        "energy": 11.801299,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0034,
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          0.003383,
          0.003437
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.0035,
        "volume": 3709129,
        "typical_volume": 16259498.3,
        "trend": 0.003553,
        "fair_value": 0.008855,
        "relative_strength": -22.763059,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.246966,
        "energy": 5.169793,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.003433,
          0.003418,
          0.003399,
          0.003433
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.0036,
        "volume": 13255638,
        "typical_volume": 16161362.95,
        "trend": 0.003538,
        "fair_value": 0.008721,
        "relative_strength": -19.57488,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 3.970773,
        "energy": 11.249536,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.003493,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}