{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8bf888b3-98ac-4834-b73b-b60c83cc4caf", "symbol": "ACCELYA", "name": "Accelya Solutions India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.397, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.608, "architecture_energy": 14.758, "architecture_maturity": 24.149, "architecture_confidence": 63.629, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.46, "rotation_up": 36.73, "upward_expansion": 31.5, "deceleration": 46.52, "rotation_down": 20.79, "downward_expansion": 42.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1145.733325, 1136.409093, 1136.180481, 1145.28463 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1143.599976, "trend_reference": 1167.302966, "distance_from_trend": -0.020306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1357.184192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.468421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102496, "excess_performance": -0.058787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03913, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102496, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26218, "relative_activity": 0.695466, "balance": 0.660888, "dry_up": 1.065913, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034096, "annualized_volatility": 0.207699, "from_high_reference": -0.20433, "from_low_reference": 0.129593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1167.302966, "fair_value_reference": 1357.184192, "structural_low": 1012.400024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009655, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.00771, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.250973, "worst_return": -0.084142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009481, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023259, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.314809, "worst_return": -0.135517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.280108, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.165101, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.609318, "worst_return": -0.139928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.115482, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.419659, "worst_return": -0.177601, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090979, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007223, "active": false 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.649978, "energy": 14.011987, "activity_lines": [ 1138.613362, 1130.769112, 1135.554776, 1149.041383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1145.199951, "volume": 52944, "typical_volume": 39078.45, "trend": 1171.500647, "fair_value": 1357.636992, "relative_strength": -5.885009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.083067, "energy": 16.610079, "activity_lines": [ 1143.853336, 1133.943646, 1135.873818, 1147.084673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1143.599976, "volume": 26218, "typical_volume": 37698.45, "trend": 1167.302966, "fair_value": 1357.184192, "relative_strength": -6.468421, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.608008, "energy": 14.757811, "activity_lines": [ 1145.733325, 1136.409093, 1136.180481, 1145.28463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }