{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c004f3a-fa77-4d55-b52d-9cb479cca416", "symbol": "V3MA", "name": "Vanguard ESG Emerging Markets All Cap UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.732, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.695, "architecture_energy": 26.445, "architecture_maturity": 63.888, "architecture_confidence": 74.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.38, "rotation_up": 31.41, "upward_expansion": 60.17, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 33.03, "downward_expansion": 21.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.114067, 8.164091, 8.110386, 7.971224 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.281, "trend_reference": 7.804133, "distance_from_trend": 0.061104, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.409558, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.546857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101636, "excess_performance": -0.069255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061104, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06379, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101636, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.513557, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9929, "relative_activity": 1.378568, "balance": 0.513557, "dry_up": 1.670728, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030487, "annualized_volatility": 0.175866, "from_high_reference": -0.021043, "from_low_reference": 0.257555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.804133, "fair_value_reference": 6.409558, "structural_low": 7.083, "invalidation": "A 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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8.3164, 8.239473, 8.034986, 7.883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.985, "volume": 11666, "typical_volume": 7345.25, "trend": 7.7137, "fair_value": 6.357026, "relative_strength": -4.909015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.733131, "energy": 46.089546, "activity_lines": [ 8.2142, 8.203964, 8.049429, 7.902899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.076, "volume": 13078, "typical_volume": 7170.75, "trend": 7.748767, "fair_value": 6.373712, "relative_strength": -3.625691, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.618733, "energy": 34.630832, "activity_lines": [ 8.153667, 8.187382, 8.07099, 7.926273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.938, "volume": 13460, "typical_volume": 7070.6, "trend": 7.7735, "fair_value": 6.390333, "relative_strength": -5.832384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.062745, "energy": 21.327496, "activity_lines": [ 8.069067, 8.143564, 8.075833, 7.938482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.281, "volume": 9929, "typical_volume": 7202.4, "trend": 7.804133, "fair_value": 6.409558, "relative_strength": -4.546857, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.694884, "energy": 26.445494, "activity_lines": [ 8.114067, 8.164091, 8.110386, 7.971224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }