{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c02a486-0595-49c3-8850-66b0aee3b9e7", "symbol": "PDLB", "name": "Ponce Financial Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.028, "architecture_energy": 51.992, "architecture_maturity": 69.13, "architecture_confidence": 84.062, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.7, "rotation_up": 56.81, "upward_expansion": 83.86, "deceleration": 64.68, "rotation_down": 24.66, "downward_expansion": 8.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.138, 20.007273, 19.39019, 18.771441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.07, "trend_reference": 18.008333, "distance_from_trend": 0.114484, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.77234, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.571364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.653184, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.184071, "excess_performance": -0.003383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074611, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.571364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069401, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046532, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.727469, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 418121, "relative_activity": 1.287955, "balance": 1.727469, "dry_up": 1.089449, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045311, "annualized_volatility": 0.137008, "from_high_reference": -0.034632, "from_low_reference": 0.442847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.008333, "fair_value_reference": 12.77234, "structural_low": 15.86, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009366, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": 0.001639, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.210245, "worst_return": -0.125392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.053657, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.061536, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.21825, "worst_return": -0.133531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.09254, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.032928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.416222, "worst_return": -0.159391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 79.967061, "energy": 82.211784, "activity_lines": [ 19.688667, 19.231636, 18.471, 17.97 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.9, "volume": 196610, "typical_volume": 331300.8, "trend": 17.519, "fair_value": 12.496186, "relative_strength": 4.574146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.097562, "energy": 69.100262, "activity_lines": [ 19.816, 19.432, 18.668476, 18.130043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.25, "volume": 368475, "typical_volume": 333917.75, "trend": 17.626, "fair_value": 12.565737, "relative_strength": 10.69608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.375114, "energy": 64.468256, "activity_lines": [ 20.0, 19.654182, 18.884048, 18.306237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.2, "volume": 306076, "typical_volume": 328559.55, "trend": 17.738667, "fair_value": 12.633301, "relative_strength": 11.882345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.238652, "energy": 60.776676, "activity_lines": [ 20.111333, 19.823455, 19.07581, 18.472301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.18, "volume": 322040, "typical_volume": 325410.8, "trend": 17.874667, "fair_value": 12.702917, "relative_strength": 10.827494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.132064, "energy": 56.200047, "activity_lines": [ 20.157333, 19.94, 19.247476, 18.629806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.07, "volume": 418121, "typical_volume": 324639.45, "trend": 18.008333, "fair_value": 12.77234, "relative_strength": 4.653184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.027885, "energy": 51.991542, "activity_lines": [ 20.138, 20.007273, 19.39019, 18.771441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }