{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c0ae600-d025-4615-83ba-6376be538d03", "symbol": "NTL", "name": "New Talisman Gold Mines Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.253, "architecture_energy": 64.801, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.33, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.81, "rotation_up": 24.95, "upward_expansion": 10.35, "deceleration": 58.26, "rotation_down": 63.26, "downward_expansion": 86.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010733, 0.011036, 0.012076, 0.013069 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.0148, "distance_from_trend": -0.324324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.031042, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.677852, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.05943, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.473684, "excess_performance": -0.501958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342222, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.677852, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.650594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.473684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1049298, "relative_activity": 0.83005, "balance": 0.497058, "dry_up": 0.805257, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123077, "annualized_volatility": 0.548466, "from_high_reference": -0.84375, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0148, "fair_value_reference": 0.031042, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.171429, "directional_follow_through": 0.342857, "median_excess_return": -0.00296, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.55, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037242, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.039953, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.913043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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64.374275, "activity_lines": [ 0.011267, 0.011782, 0.0129, 0.014049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 184227, "typical_volume": 1252236.4, "trend": 0.015733, "fair_value": 0.031196, "relative_strength": -63.850111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.730043, "energy": 63.17665, "activity_lines": [ 0.011133, 0.011545, 0.012638, 0.013714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 1283536, "typical_volume": 1270425.15, "trend": 0.015267, "fair_value": 0.031119, "relative_strength": -62.40348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.391106, "energy": 56.502887, "activity_lines": [ 0.011067, 0.011364, 0.012395, 0.013409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 1049298, "typical_volume": 1264138.45, "trend": 0.0148, "fair_value": 0.031042, "relative_strength": -65.05943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.252972, "energy": 64.800982, "activity_lines": [ 0.010733, 0.011036, 0.012076, 0.013069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }