{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c0b0076-4a00-4910-97e9-c129ad278256", "symbol": "MVL", "name": "Marvel Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.927, "architecture_energy": 60.18, "architecture_maturity": 46.66, "architecture_confidence": 82.332, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 14.44, "upward_expansion": 10.88, "deceleration": 44.38, "rotation_down": 69.16, "downward_expansion": 86.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011967, 0.012527, 0.013605, 0.014447 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.015917, "distance_from_trend": -0.183246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.012567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.953209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315789, "excess_performance": -0.379495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249532, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101236, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.18861, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2660224, "relative_activity": 1.21405, "balance": 1.18861, "dry_up": 1.127519, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133136, "annualized_volatility": 0.630985, "from_high_reference": -0.458333, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015917, "fair_value_reference": 0.012567, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.242424, "directional_follow_through": 0.393939, "median_excess_return": -0.014324, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.182013, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.161775, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": -0.047619, "worst_return": -0.28125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.297095, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.44, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.352941, "active": 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"typical_volume": 2655142.05, "trend": 0.016367, "fair_value": 0.012561, "relative_strength": -27.534111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.140147, "energy": 78.525874, "activity_lines": [ 0.012867, 0.013636, 0.014471, 0.015295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0115, "volume": 3052388, "typical_volume": 2376527.7, "trend": 0.016217, "fair_value": 0.012558, "relative_strength": -30.143127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.37844, "energy": 79.545374, "activity_lines": [ 0.012233, 0.013109, 0.014124, 0.014981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 3575278, "typical_volume": 2215947.3, "trend": 0.01605, "fair_value": 0.012551, "relative_strength": -34.595371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.863728, "energy": 82.644489, "activity_lines": [ 0.011667, 0.012591, 0.013755, 0.014644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2660224, "typical_volume": 2191197.2, "trend": 0.015917, "fair_value": 0.012567, "relative_strength": -24.953209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.926769, "energy": 60.179769, "activity_lines": [ 0.011967, 0.012527, 0.013605, 0.014447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }