{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c101098-e59d-48b4-b0d9-49aa007f636e", "symbol": "MSAG", "name": "MS Industrie AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.634, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.079, "architecture_energy": 62.267, "architecture_maturity": 8.217, "architecture_confidence": 81.125, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.41, "rotation_up": 12.14, "upward_expansion": 16.08, "deceleration": 34.5, "rotation_down": 70.55, "downward_expansion": 89.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.210667, 1.239818, 1.261048, 1.267785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.21, "trend_reference": 1.277333, "distance_from_trend": -0.052714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.510128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.48143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032, "excess_performance": -0.09664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047257, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.644711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9598, "relative_activity": 0.712888, "balance": 3.644711, "dry_up": 1.417624, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057851, "annualized_volatility": 0.279499, "from_high_reference": -0.20915, "from_low_reference": 0.09009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.277333, "fair_value_reference": 1.510128, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.013699, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.021953, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.185039, "worst_return": -0.136213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.004709, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.207547, "worst_return": -0.265193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059436, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189394, "worst_return": -0.270718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035634, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076963, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.182156, "worst_return": -0.169811, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103896, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.285333, 1.291091, 1.286571, 1.28514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.26, "volume": 10306, "typical_volume": 12264.25, "trend": 1.281, "fair_value": 1.518462, "relative_strength": -8.395276, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.792792, "energy": 5.295361, "activity_lines": [ 1.274667, 1.285818, 1.284238, 1.283849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.18, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 12350.25, "trend": 1.279333, "fair_value": 1.515385, "relative_strength": -14.51303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.563426, "energy": 51.198244, "activity_lines": [ 1.240667, 1.266, 1.274476, 1.277333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 48441, "typical_volume": 14426.35, "trend": 1.278667, "fair_value": 1.512821, "relative_strength": -14.360109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.05919, "energy": 60.033541, "activity_lines": [ 1.220667, 1.251636, 1.267095, 1.272215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.21, "volume": 9598, "typical_volume": 13463.55, "trend": 1.277333, "fair_value": 1.510128, "relative_strength": -15.48143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.079303, "energy": 62.267121, "activity_lines": [ 1.210667, 1.239818, 1.261048, 1.267785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }