{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8c107b9e-30d1-4e3b-baef-e7c391e6e787", "symbol": "003039", "name": "Guangdong Shunkong Development Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.578, "architecture_energy": 51.585, "architecture_maturity": 88.278, "architecture_confidence": 68.851, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.75, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 44.69, "downward_expansion": 71.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.590667, 11.534446, 12.155927, 12.981104 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.8, "trend_reference": 14.148229, "distance_from_trend": -0.165973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.69351, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.127082, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.283546, "excess_performance": -0.290946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138278, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17467167, "relative_activity": 0.991416, "balance": 0.27849, "dry_up": 1.107184, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060159, "annualized_volatility": 0.25651, "from_high_reference": -0.369995, "from_low_reference": 0.09462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.148229, "fair_value_reference": 13.69351, "structural_low": 10.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.02649, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.012235, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.207379, "worst_return": -0.208085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.04809, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.002086, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.083538, "worst_return": -0.103562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039444, "worst_return": -0.132026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01142, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079045, "active": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -67.891856, "energy": 70.997176, "activity_lines": [ 11.297267, 11.65745, 12.635406, 13.513923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 23940120, "typical_volume": 19821140.4, "trend": 14.390229, "fair_value": 13.76051, "relative_strength": -21.507105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.742419, "energy": 66.827991, "activity_lines": [ 11.234, 11.5004, 12.408088, 13.302144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.9, "volume": 17941310, "typical_volume": 18566272.2, "trend": 14.285896, "fair_value": 13.729914, "relative_strength": -14.762473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.831654, "energy": 62.993476, "activity_lines": [ 11.454, 11.515455, 12.274864, 13.141484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.8, "volume": 17467167, "typical_volume": 17618396.75, "trend": 14.148229, "fair_value": 13.69351, "relative_strength": -19.127082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.57775, "energy": 51.585242, "activity_lines": [ 11.590667, 11.534446, 12.155927, 12.981104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }